906
FXUS01 KWBC 050627
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 AM EDT MON AUG 05 2024
VALID 12Z MON AUG 05 2024 - 12Z WED AUG 07 2024
..HURRICANE DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND STRONG
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST...
...THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST AND HEAT
ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
HURRICANE DEBBY WILL MAKE LANDFALL THIS MORNING OVER FLORIDA'S BIG
BEND REGION, WHERE HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA'S GULF COAST, WHERE STORM SURGE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS FLORIDA AND
SPREAD INTO GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
(LEVEL 2/5) FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SOUTHERN/COASTAL GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTH CAROLINA'S CENTRAL COAST,
WHERE THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES IS GREATEST. ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE ARE EXPECTED ALONG FLORIDA'S WEST COAST
INCLUDING THE TAMPA BAY AREA TODAY.
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL, ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
DEBBY, ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF CATASTROPHIC FLOODING.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IMPACTS
FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE ARE HIGH RISKS (AT
LEAST 70%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM FLORIDA'S BIG
BEND REGION UP THROUGH COASTAL GEORGIA AND INTO SOUTH CAROLINA'S
SOUTHERN COAST TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON TUESDAY ALONG THE
GEORGIA--SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. ANYWHERE BETWEEN 7-15 INCHES OF
RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA'S NORTHERN COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION GO TO HURRICANES.GOV.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES DOWN TO THE MIDWEST
AND MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TODAY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. SLIGHT RISKS OF FLASH
FLOODING (AT LEAST 15%) AND SEVERE STORMS ARE IN EFFECT OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TODAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTS
INTO THE NEW YORK TRI-STATE AREA ON TUESDAY WHERE ANOTHER SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
INVOLVEMENT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM DEBBY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA ON
TUESDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO SUPERCELL/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT EVENING. SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WHILE EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK GROWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA'S
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VALLEY. MONSOONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEK WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
ON TUESDAY.
KEBEDE
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