078
FXSA20 KWBC 051902
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EDT MON AUG 05 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 05 AUG 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
ON MONDAY...A DEEPENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER
THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS ENTERING THE CONTINENT...INTO CHILE
AND ARGENTINA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET TO THE NORTH EXTENDS OVER NORTH
CHILE AND NORTH ARGENTINA. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXTENDING INTO THE PORTIONS OF NORTH BOLIVIA AND SOUTHERN PERU.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LOWER MUCH OF PRESSURE INTO THE LOWER
LEVELS AND ENHANCE THE UPPER DIVERGENT CONDITIONS FOR FAVORABLE
SEVERE WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHERN BOLIVIA TO
SOUTH BRASIL AND URUGUAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CHACO REGION...NORTHEAST
ARGENTINA...AND INTO SOUTH BRASIL. THE SALLJ IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN REGION OF THE
CONTINENT. THE INTERACTION FROM THE MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH AND
THE FRONT OVER NORTH ARGENTINA AND INTO BRASIL AND
URUGUAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTH RIO GRANDE DO SUL AND
EAST URUGUAY. IN NORTH RIO GRANDE DO SUL...SOUTH URUGUAY...AND
EAST BUENOS AIRES...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. TO THE
WEST...CHILE IS SEEING FRONTAL PASSAGES ON MONDAY THAT WILL FAVOR
PRECIPITATION INTO CENTRAL CHILE...AND LOS LAGOS. THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF CHILE CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE REGION OF LOS
LAGOS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BOTH CAN EXPECT MOUNTAIN SNOW
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN PERU AND BOLIVIA...MOISTURE IS MAKING
ITS WAY ALONG THE MOUNTAIN OF THE ANDES...FAVORING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. FROM LA PAZ TO WEST SANTA CRUZ-BOLIVIA EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. ALONG THE CENTRAL ANDEAN MOUNTAIN RANGE EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM IN PERU. IN NORTHERN PERU AND EAST ECUADOR EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM WITH THE INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE
REGION.
ON TUESDAY...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND
DEEPENS OVER THE CONTINENT WITH AN INTENSIFICATION OF OF THE JET.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES OVER CENTRAL
ARGENTINA...AND INTO BUENOS AIRES. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONTINENT...ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES OVER WESTERN PARAGUAY AND INTO
SOUTHERN BRASIL. THIS SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FAVOR MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE REGION. EASTERN ARGENTINA CAN EXPECT
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF PERU. THIS
CONDITION WILL ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
CENTRAL REGIONS OF PERU...INTO THE BOLIVIA...PARAGUAY...AND INTO
ARGENTINA...BRASIL AND URUGUAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CROSSING
THE REGION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM NORTH ARGENTINA INTO
WEST RIO GRANDE DO SUL...AND EAST URUGUAY. WESTERN PARAGUAY TO
NORTH ARGENTINA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THESE REGIONS CAN EXPECT
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
BUENOS AIRES IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE AND PROVIDE EASTERLY WINDS
INTO THE REGION...FAVORING PRECIPITATIONS WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED. IN THE
BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM...COLDER AIR IS ADVECTED OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL REGION OF THE PATAGONIA...FAVORING A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW...WITH MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. TO THE NORTH...TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ALONG THE ANDEAN REGIONS OF PERU
AND BOLIVIA. THESE REGIONS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER JET AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.
THE CORE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INDICATING SIGNS OF
POTENTIALLY SEGREGATING BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DO SO. DUE TO
STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE OCCLUDED
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN REGION OF
BUENOS AIRES AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS CIRCULATION OVER
THE REGION WILL FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW OVER BUENOS AIRES...WHERE THEY
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. TO THE NORTH...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS BEING ASSISTED BY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ADVANCE
FURTHER NORTH AND EXTEND FROM NORTHWESTERN BOLIVIA...INTO
PARAGUAY...AND RIO GRANDE DO SUL. THE UPPER DIVERGENT CONDITIONS
WILL FAVOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER FROM NORTH
PARAGUAY TO SOUTHERN BRASIL...AND INTO EAST URUGUAY. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...EAST ARGENTINA...INTO EAST URUGUAY...AND RIO
GRANDE DO SUL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. FROM SOUTHERN
BOLIVIA...NORTH AND EAST PARAGUAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
SOUTH PARAGUAY AND INTO SOUTH BRASIL EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. TO
THE NORTH...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEING ADVECTED FROM
THE NORTH...BUT A DECREASE IN THE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. CENTRAL
PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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