185
FXCA20 KWBC 051932
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 PM EDT MON AUG 05 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 05 AUG 2024 AT 1930 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY...WHICH IS AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST USA...AND
IT COULD MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. STAYING WITH THE ATLANTIC BASIN...THERE IS ALSO AN AREA
THAT NHC IS MONITORING IN THE CARIBBEAN...WHICH HAS A 10% CHANCE
OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND 30%
CHANCE OF FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS. THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS VERY
ACTIVE...HOWEVER. THERE ARE CURRENTLY FOUR ACTIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONES IN THE EAST PACIFIC...IN AN AREA WITH A DIVERGENT MJO
PHASE. TOPICAL STORMS CARLOTTA...DANIAL...EMILIA...AND FABIO ARE
ALL EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS AND NOT AFFECT LAND AREAS
DIRECTLY.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE IS SOME SAHARAN DUST THAT WILL BE
MOVING THOUGH THE CARIBBEAN...YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF
SAHARAN DUST...CURRENTLY OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WILL BE
APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THURSDAY. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAT THE ITCZ IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES IN AND INTERACTS WITH THE PANAMANIAN LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE NOT PROVIDING ANY
PARTICULARLY STRONG DYNAMICS OVER LAND AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...WHICH MAY BE PROVIDING
SOME VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND
DIURNAL HEATING.
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...THE AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE
MOST RAINFALL ARE PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...ESPECIALLY PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AS WELL AS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF VENEZUELA. THE 3-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS THOSE AREAS COULD BE
AS HIGH AS 75-100MM...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE WETTEST
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA COULD BE ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...THEN
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SEE ITS WETTEST DAY FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE PANAMANIAN
LOW...CAUSING VERY DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. MEXICO
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...NAMELY ACROSS
THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND ALONG THE WESTERN COAST FROM
GUERRERO TO OAXACA...WITH A POSSIBLE MAX VALUE OF AROUND 50-75MM.
THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS MAY OBSERVE RELATIVELY MODEST AMOUNTS OF
RAIN THIS WEEK...IN FACT THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAT
COULD OCCUR OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS MAY BE LIMITED TO LOCALIZED
CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF
RAIN COULD BE OBSERVED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAX
3-DAY TOTALS IN THE ORDER OF 50-80MM WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE RAINIEST DAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
PASSES THROUGH HE CARIBBEAN...BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS THEN
PULLED NORTH AS TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS...CAUSING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN CUBA.
ONE MORE AREA TO NOTE IS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM
DEBBY MAY COME VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE PROXIMITY TO DEBBY WILL CAUSE THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FEEDER
BANDS TO CAUSE SOME SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MAX RAINFALL VALUES BETWEEN 40
AND 50MM...OVER THE 3-DAY PERIOD...WITH 25-35MM OF THOSE HAPPENING
ON WEDNESDAY.
ALAMO...(WPC)
FERNANDER...(BDM)
JACKMAN (BMS)
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