931
FXUS01 KWBC 060824
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 AM EDT TUE AUG 06 2024
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 06 2024 - 12Z THU AUG 08 2024
...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE POTENTIALLY
CATASTROPHIC FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE, AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST...
...THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
MIDWEST, LOWER GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TODAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST; HEAT ADVISORIES
OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK UP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. POTENTIALLY HISTORIC HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF CATASTROPHIC
FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
FLOODING IMPACTS FROM NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY HISTORIC RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 10-20 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES. A HIGH RISK
(AT LEAST 70%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. ON
WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER HIGH RISK WILL ENCIRCLE PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CAROLINAS CENTRAL COAST UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. FOR
MORE INFORMATION GO TO HURRICANES.GOV.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM DEBBY WILL INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST AND LIKELY GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHERN MARYLAND, NEW JERSEY, AND
THE NYC METRO AREA. A MODERATE RISK (AT LEAST 40%) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, WHERE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE, WHERE
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE STATIONARY FRONT TURNS COLD AND MOVES OFFSHORE.
ELSEWHERE, MID-LEVEL ENERGY PROPAGATING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND OUTFLOW
GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PENETRATE THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE COMING DAYS, AND
USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S, REPRESENTING A 15-25 DEGREE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. WARM AIR
WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES WITH A
HEAT WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
MONSOONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
PROMOTE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. A SLIGHT
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS A
RESULT. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE EXCESSIVE HEAT, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHERE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
KEBEDE
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