077
FXSA20 KWBC 061859
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 06 AUG 2024 AT 1900 UTC:
ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION CONTINUE TO BECOME WETTER.
IN THE SOUTHERN REGION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A COLD
CORE IS ENTERING THE CONTINENT AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE DAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTH ARGENTINA
REGION...PARAGUAY...SOUTH BRASIL...AND URUGUAY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE PRESENCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
PROGRESSING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE WIDER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
OVER NORTH ARGENTINA...AND ANOTHER INTO URUGUAY. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WILL FAVOR VENTILATION
AND INCREASE THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATIONS OVER THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER THE MOISTURE ADVECTED
FROM THE TROPICAL REGIONS OF THE NORTH AND BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY PRECIPITATIONS ON TUESDAY. ALONG THE
ANDES MOUNTAINS IN PERU AND BOLIVIA...THEY WILL BE SEEING THE SAME
ADVECTION OF MOIST AND WARMER AIR FROM THE TROPICAL REGION AND
WILL FAVOR THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS.
THE ENTRANCE OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE
THIS CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN REGIONS...AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM FROM NORTH
PERU...INTO WEST BRASIL...AND NORTH BOLIVIA. OF IMPORTANCE WILL BE
THE AMOUNTS THAT ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTH ARGENTINA INTO RIO GRANDE
DO SUL AND EAST URUGUAY...POTENTIALLY REACHING MAXIMA OF
30-60MM...WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. MAXIMA OF
15-30MM ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST PARAGUAY.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL ARGENTINA AND THE BASE EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL
BOLIVIA AND NORTH PARAGUAY. THE CORE OF THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO
CLOSE UP BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO FULLY SEGREGATE. IN
ADDITION...THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ALSO MAKE IT TO THE NORTH...INTO NORTHERN CHILE...NORTH
ARGENTINA...AND SOUTH PARAGUAY. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO TRAVEL OVER NORTH ARGENTINA
AND INTO URUGUAY AND SOUTH BRASIL. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER ARGENTINA AND SOUTH OF URUGUAY...IT WILL FAVOR DEEPENING OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE BUENOS AIRES REGION. WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE EAST AND FAVOR
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION...WHERE THEY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. TO THE NORTH
INTO CENTRAL BOLIVIA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERS THE
REGION. IN PARAGUAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE AMOUNTS OF
15-30MM ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN PARAGUAY INTO SOUTHERN BRASIL.
RIO GRANDE DO SUL AND EXTREME EAST ARGENTINA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM.
ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE COLD
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY PARANA AND
SOUTHERN SAO PAULO...EXTEND NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN
BRASIL...AND FINALLY ENTER BOLIVIA FROM MATO GROSSO-BRASIL...CROSS
OVER NORTHERN BOLIVIA...AND EXPECTED TO ENTER SOUTH PERU. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER ALONG SOUTHEAST PERU AND INTO
NORTHERN BOLIVIA...AS IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTH AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ASSIST IN
VENTILATION. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM SOUTHERN PERU INTO
NORTH BOLIVIA. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ANDEAN REGION
IN NORTH CENTRAL PERU...AND CENTRAL BOLIVIA. TO THE SOUTH...AN
OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUES TO FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW INTO BUENOS AIRES
AND THEN EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN URUGUAY...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN THE SOUTHERN CHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF...20-35MM.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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