508
FXUS01 KWBC 062025
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
424 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2024
VALID 00Z WED AUG 07 2024 - 00Z FRI AUG 09 2024
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA...
...INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD
FROM ITS TUESDAY AFTERNOON POSITION NEAR THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AFTER BRIEFLY MOVING BACK
OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH ARE GOING TO
FALL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10-20 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF CATASTROPHIC FLOODING. URBAN AND AREAL FLOODING ALONG
WITH MAJOR FLOODING OF AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF OF HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION, DEBBY WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR TORNADOES TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TOMORROW, SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
FOR THURSDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON DEBBY, PLEASE VISIT
HURRICANES.GOV.
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE NORTHER MID-ATLANTIC REGION, DEEP MOISTURE
RELATED TO DEBBY ALONG WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE GENERATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO THE NEW YORK
CITY METRO REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE
WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALONG WITH AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
DIMINISHED ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN FROM SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY INTO EASTERN MARYLAND AND THE REMAINING DELMARVA
PENINSULA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR
FROM THE NORTH WILL SEPARATE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTH FROM BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LOCATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES LOCALLY OVER 110 DEGREES WHERE HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. LITTLE RELIEF IN THE FORM OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE LOCATIONS. FARTHER
NORTH HOWEVER, FROM MONTANA AND WYOMING TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RUN 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, AN CONTINUED ACTIVE MONSOON WILL FAVOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SHORT TERM HIGH RAINFALL
RATES, CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA TO
AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN THE ABSENCE OF THUNDERSTORM
GENERATED CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH
OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO RUN UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
OTTO
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