458
FXUS01 KWBC 070658
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT WED AUG 07 2024
VALID 12Z WED AUG 07 2024 - 12Z FRI AUG 09 2024
...CONSIDERABLE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA...
...MONSOON STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS
REGIONS...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN A BIT AND
RE-CURVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TODAY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG
THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, LEADING TO MAXIMUM AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 25 INCHES IN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND 15 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A HIGH RISK (AT LEAST 70%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA COAST
TODAY BEFORE EXPANDING INTO INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY AS DEBBY
MOVES ONSHORE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA FOR THURSDAY WITH A RISK OF TORNADOES PRESENT.
EVENING STORMS PRODUCED BY TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM DEBBY
INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE, SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK
(AT LEAST 15%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING FROM THE EVENING CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE, MONSOONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS
REGIONS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BENEATH A
STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
A UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS WILL DESCEND UPON THE GREAT PLAINS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINNING TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A HEAT WAVE WILL GRIP PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 100S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S CREATING WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO ISOLATED EXTREME HEATRISK.
THE LACK OF OVERNIGHT RELIEF IN THESE AREAS WILL POSE A POTENTIAL
RISK TO THOSE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION.
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.
KEBEDE
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