633
FXUS02 KWBC 071842
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2024
VALID 12Z SAT AUG 10 2024 - 12Z WED AUG 14 2024
...EXCESSIVE HEAT LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...
..OVERVIEW
THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY WILL BE EXITING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, PUSHED OUT VIA AN INCOMING GREAT LAKES UPPER
LOW. THIS WILL BRING IN A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPSTREAM
OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL STATES, UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER TEXAS
WILL MAINTAIN MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT CONCERNS PERSISTING FROM TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. MINOR TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 06Z/12Z GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFERED REASONABLE
CLUSTERING THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS
(ALONG WITH THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN TO START) WAS A GOOD STARTING
POINT. LOWER PREDICTABILITY LIED IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS AS THE
FRONT WAVERS N-S. GENERALLY THE NBM WAS A DECENT STARTING POINT.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
FOR THE SATURDAY ERO, KEPT A SMALL MARGINAL RISK OUTLINE FOR FAR
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS REMNANT DEBBY WILL BE VERY NEARLY OUT OF
THE PICTURE. TO THE WEST, MONSOONAL MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IN PLACE FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHWARD INTO THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. MARGINAL EROS WERE MAINTAINED AND EXPANDED A BIT FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS FOR DAYS 4/5.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SATURDAY/SUNDAY
THAT ORIGINATES IN THE LEE OF THE CO ROCKIES AND TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KS/MUCH OF OK INTO THE
OZARKS. MARGINAL RISKS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BOTH DAYS 4 AND 5 AS A
RESULT, BUT EXPANDED A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST CSU MACHINE LEARNING
ERO FIRST GUESS WHICH SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR SOME DISPLACEMENT
ERRORS/BIAS. WAVY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST COULD TOUCH OFF SOME
ISOLATED HEAVIER RAIN FALL WHERE RAINFALL FROM DEBBY HAS RESULTED
IN FULLY SATURATED SOILS THAT MAY ONLY PARTIALLY RECOVER BY THEN.
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST OVER TEXAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK DOWN STREAM OF A
RIDGE AXIS OVER WEST TEXAS. HEATRISK VALUES WILL BE AT MODERATE TO
MAJOR LEVELS WITH SOME ISOLATED EXTREME VALUES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. PERSISTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY BEFORE RETURN FLOW BRINGS TEMPS BACK TOWARD
NORMAL.
FRACASSO/JACKSON
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC MEDIUM
RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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