177
FXSA20 KWBC 071927
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 07 AUG 2024 AT 1930 UTC:
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPENTED TO BE POTENT AND BRING WITH IT COLDER AIR THAT WILL
STRETCH FROM CENTRAL ARGENTINA INTO SAO PAOLO AND RIO DE JANEIRO
BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. THE CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS COLD AND WILL ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. WITH THIS POTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A COLD FRONT
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST...AND MAKE IT TO
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL REGIONS OF BRASIL AND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
PERU...ALONG THE ANDEAN REGIONS.
ON WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH CENTRAL
BOLIVIA...AND EXTENDS INTO MATO GROSSO...MATRO GROSSO DO SUL...AND
INTO PARANA AND SANTA CATARINA...IT THEN EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC. INTO NORTH BOLIVIA AND SOUTH PERU...EXPECT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE NORTH AS PRESSURES DECREASE WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IN THE REGION WILL ASSIST TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION...WHERE MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IS EXPECTED IN NORTH
BOLIVIA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN PERU AND
ALONG THE ANDEAN REGION IN CENTRAL PERU. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS LOCALLY. ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN CENTRAL BOLIVIA...AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN RIO GRANDE DO SUL...SANTA CATARINA...AND PARANA...AND
INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST ARGENTINA...AND SOUTH PARAGUAY. PARAGUAY
AND NORTH PARANA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. THESE REGIONS CAN
EXPECT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. TO THE SOUTH...AN OCCLUDED
FRONT IS FAVORING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE BUENOS AIRES
REGION...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. THE COLD CORE OF THE
TROUGH IS FAVORING INCREASE COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION OF
ARGENTINA. THE REGIONS OF THE BUENOS AIRES SIERRAS...SAN
LUIS...CORDOBA...CUYO..AND NOA CAN EXPECT A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SNOW/RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TO BE LOCATED FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE SECTORS OF SOUTHERN PERU...NORTH BOLIVIA...INTO
SOUTH BRASIL...AND EXITING THROUGH EAST SAO PAOLO...INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...AND INTO THE END POINTS INTO SOUTHERN PERU AND NORTH
BOLIVIA. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF BOLIVIA. INTO THE BUENOS AIRES AND SOUTHERN URUGUAY
REGION...THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FUTHER EAST. THIS
REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SOUTHERN CHILE WILL SEE THE
ENTRANCE OF A ATMOSPHRIC RIVER THAT WILL BRING THE INCREASED
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION. WITH THE ENTRANCE OF
A TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ON FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL
PERU...AND EXTEND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BRASIL...WHILE EXITING
THROUGH RIO DE JANEIRO. THE INCREASED DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LIMIT THE PRECIPITATIONS IN PERU...WHERE THEY CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BRASIL...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
BRASIL. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION OF BRASIL. RIO DE JANEIRO
AND EAST SAO PAOLO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FROM NORTH RIO DE
JANEIRO TO MATO GROSSO DO SUL...AND SOUTH GOIAS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. IN SOUTHERN CHILE...THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INCREASED THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHERN
CHILE...WHERE THEY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-50MM...WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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