260
FXUS01 KWBC 080810
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
409 AM EDT THU AUG 08 2024
VALID 12Z THU AUG 08 2024 - 12Z SAT AUG 10 2024
...DEBBY IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, STRONG WINDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE
COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...
...MONSOONAL STORMS PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, FOUR
CORNERS AND HIGH PLAINS...
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOMETIME ON FRIDAY WHILE IT
MOVES UP INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OF VIRGINIA, MARYLAND AND
PENNSYLVANIA. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LEADING TO MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
AS HIGH AS 15 INCHES. THERE'S A HIGH RISK (AT LEAST 70%) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING FROM COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA, INTO THE PIEDMONT AND UP THROUGH THE BLUE
RIDGE/APPALACHIANS OF VIRGINIA. CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY.
FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA,
3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, WITH RIVER FLOODING
POSSIBLE. FROM PORTIONS OF MARYLAND NORTH THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK
AND VERMONT, 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES, ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING.
THERE'S A MODERATE RISK (AT LEAST 40%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA UP THROUGH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK FOR FRIDAY AS DEBBY MOVES UP THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. RAIN, WIND AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN
END ON SATURDAY WHEN DEBBY GETS SWEPT UP INTO A POWERFUL UPPER LOW
PROPAGATING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
ELSEWHERE, A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER
LOW IN CANADA WILL DRAG AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS DOWN INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL REPRESENT A 15-25 DEGREE NEGATIVE ANOMALY FOR THOSE
AREAS, WHERE SOME RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW BENEATH A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUATION OF A HEAT WAVE FROM TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. HEAT ADVISORIES AND ISOLATED EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT THIS
WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.
MONSOONAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, FOUR
CORNERS AND HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALONG A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL PROMOTE INTENSE
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. A
SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY AND ANOTHER
ON FRIDAY ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO/SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. SLOT CANYONS
AND BURN SCARS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING FROM ANY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT OCCURS. WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO POOR AIR QUALITY OVER MUCH OF OREGON AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON STATE. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON.
KEBEDE
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