141
FXUS01 KWBC 081933
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2024
VALID 00Z FRI AUG 09 2024 - 00Z SUN AUG 11 2024
...DEBBY TO BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT FROM
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, INTO WESTERN TO
NORTHERN NY STATE FRIDAY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY RAINS, FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING LIKELY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE TRACK OF DEBBY...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE
SOUTH, BUT WITH LESS RECORD HIGHS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...
...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POOR AIR QUALITY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
DEBBY CONTINUES ITS SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUED WEAKENING OF
DEBBY FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE OCEAN.
HOWEVER, THE HEAVY RAIN, FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE STORM BEGINS ITS
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION. WITH THE INCREASED ACCELERATION TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, INTO WESTERN TO NORTHERN NY STATE FRIDAY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, THE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY
BE NOT AS HEAVY AS AMOUNTS THE OCCURRED WHEN DEBBY WAS SLOWER
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST. STILL, WITH
MOISTURE VALUES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-5"+ WILL BE OCCURRING OVER AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN, THE THREAT OF LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF DEBBY, ALONG WITH THE LINGERING
EFFECTS OF THE FLOODING THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED FROM FLORIDA
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. CURRENTLY FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS,
FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD WATCHES STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CAROLINA, NORTH CAROLINA, NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN VIRGINIA,
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, WESTERN MARYLAND, CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA,
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NY STATE INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, AFFECTING NEARLY 30 MILLION PEOPLE.
THE NORTHEAST ACCELERATION OF DEBBY IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE
SCALE CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES, SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG FRONT ALREADY ENCOMPASS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS,
UPPER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THESE BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A FEW RECORD
LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST INTO TEXAS, THE SOUTH AND GULF COAST. A
FEW RECORD HIGHS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE NUMBER OF
OVERALL RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE COUNTRY CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS. EVEN WITH LESS RECORD HIGH POTENTIAL, THE CURRENT
HEAT IS RESULTING IN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS, SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA, EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST, INCLUDING FLORIDA AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN OVER 60 MILLIONS PEOPLE AFFECTING
BY SOME FORM OF HEAT WARNING OR ADVISORY.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST,
THE DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
KEEP A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THIS WEEKEND. SMOKE FROM CURRENT FIRES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE POOR AIR QUALITY ACROSS THESE REGIONS.
ORAVEC
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