624
FXUS01 KWBC 090759
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT FRI AUG 09 2024
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 09 2024 - 12Z SUN AUG 11 2024
...DANGEROUS FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUE AS DEBBY
ACCELERATES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TODAY...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE
SOUTH, BUT WITH LESS RECORD HIGHS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...
...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POOR AIR QUALITY CONTINUE
ACROSS GREAT BASIN...
AFTER A SLOW TREK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS,
DEBBY IS SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKENING AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNFORTUNATELY, EVEN IN DEBBY'S
WEAKENED STATE, DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS,
MID-ATLANTIC, INTERIOR NORTHEAST, AND NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS, ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BATTER THE
REGION TODAY, WHICH WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING CATASTROPHIC AND
CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING AS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL APPROACHES
15-25 INCHES IN SPOTS. CLOSER TO DEBBY'S IMMEDIATE TRACK, 3 TO 7
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES
WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE TO LOCALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IMPACTS
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE SAME CELLS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
DANGEROUS AND PROLIFIC RAINFALL ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
FEW TORNADOES. IN THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING, A FEW TORNADOES
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC (NORTH
CAROLINA, VIRGINIA, AND MARYLAND), ALTHOUGH THE RISK WILL SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHEAST (NEW JERSEY, EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK) LATER TODAY.
THE NORTHEAST ACCELERATION OF DEBBY IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE
SCALE CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES, SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THIS STRONG FRONT ALREADY
ENCOMPASS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER TO MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, WHICH WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, OHIO VALLEY, AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A FEW
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 20-25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
IN CONTRAST, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST INTO TEXAS, THE SOUTH, AND
GULF COAST AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT TO THE NORTH. A FEW RECORD
HIGHS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE NUMBER OF OVERALL
RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE COUNTRY CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS. EVEN WITH LESS RECORD HIGH POTENTIAL, THE CURRENT HEAT HAS
LED TO A SWATH OF HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST,
THE DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN A FIRE WEATHER THREAT TOMORROW OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AND
SOUTHERN IDAHO. SMOKE FROM CURRENT FIRES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE POOR AIR QUALITY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN GENERAL.
ASHERMAN/ORAVEC
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