866
FXCA20 KWBC 091917
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
317 PM EDT FRI AUG 09 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 09 AUG 2024 AT 1915 UTC:
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...AND HAS A NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND A 60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
THROUGH 7 DAYS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE COULD APPROACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY TUESDAY AND THEREFORE SHALL BE MONITORED. THERE IS
CURRENTLY CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE A CLOSED SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE GREATER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY. THAT BEING
SAID...PLEASE FOLLOW THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAS A 10% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND 30% THROUGH 7 DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE
BUT PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...THOUGH SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATER
ON.
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST IS PRESENT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THIS PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS...BUT THE CONCENTRATION WILL DECREASE WITH EACH
PASSING DAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER INCREASE IN CONCENTRATION OF
SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER THE PACIFIC SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA WILL
BE OBSERVING MOSTLY WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THERE
ARE A FEW TROPICAL WAVES IN THE AREA THAT COULD HAVE IMPACTS OVER
LAND. THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 88W...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AREA THAT HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC...ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 62W IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS AXIS POSSIBLY LOCATED
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...CURRENTLY NEAR 36W...THAT HAS A POTENTIAL OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE NEAR 57W BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THE SAHARAN DUST MOVING THROUGH WILL LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...AND THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE THUS
EXPECTED TO BE MODEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RETROGRADING TUTT AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOW SHYING AWAY FROM HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAIN AS THE TUTT
MIGHT BE A BIT TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
INTERACTION WITH THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVE.
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL OBSERVE A SIMILAR RAINFALL PATTERN AS THE
PAST FEW DAYS...BUT OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS THE AMOUNTS COULD BE A
BIT LESS THAN RECENTLY OBSERVED. A WEAK LOW COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND POSSIBLY OVER PANAMA...HOWEVER THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL. THAT BEING SAID...DIRECT
ONSHORE FLOW INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY...AND
THEREFORE CAUSING A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE 3-DAY RAINFALL FORECAST HAS MAX VALUES OF 50-100MM...BUT ONLY
VERY ISOLATED SECTIONS COULD GET TO THE UPPER END OF THE RANGE.
ACROSS MEXICO...LITTLE NO TO CHANGE IN THE RAINFALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND
ALONG THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAIN OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THIS IS DUE TO DIURNAL ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE EAST PACIFIC INTERACTING WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS
AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. A LOW LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...WILL BRING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL
INTERACT WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN AND CAUSE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM
GUERRERO TO OAXACA. OVER THE 3-DAY PERIOD...TOTAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO COULD BE AS HIGH AS 75 TO 100MM OVER
ISOLATED AREAS...THOUGH IN GENERAL THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BETWEEN 25-75MM OVER THE TIME PERIOD.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS STILL EXPECTED TO OBSERVE SOME RAINFALL
EACH DAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN
COLOMBIA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW THAT WILL PROVIDE DIRECT
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TO THE WEST COAST OF COLOMBIA. CENTRAL
VENEZUELA WILL OBSERVE DAILY AMOUNTS OF RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE AND
WIND FLOW INTERACTING WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME
TODAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE WETTER THAN SUNDAY. THE 3-DAY
RAINFALL FORECAST FOR NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS UP TO 150MM OR SO
FOR THE WESTERN COAST COLOMBIA...AND ABOUT 75-100MM ACROSS
ISOLATED SECTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF VENEZUELA. OTHER
AREAS FROM NORTHERN GUYANA AND ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST MAX 3-DAY TOTALS OF 25-50MM.
ALAMO...(WPC)
JACKMAN...(BMS)
MATHIAS...(CIAARA/MB)
FERNANDER (BDM)
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