343
FXUS01 KWBC 100718
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
317 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2024
VALID 12Z SAT AUG 10 2024 - 12Z MON AUG 12 2024
...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL
U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
...LINGERING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST TODAY
BEFORE CONFINING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT
IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND PLAINS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. STARTING WITH THE
SOUTHWEST, FOUR CORNERS, AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE MAIN
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE RELATED TO
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND FLASH FLOODING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON
WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR, BUT SENSITIVE
TERRAIN AND BURN SCARS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS. THIS FLASH
FLOODING THREAT ALSO EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
RANGES THROUGH SUNDAY, WHERE SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
COMPLEX TERRAIN COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM OKLAHOMA TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AFTER AN INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHEAST OK TO THE
WESTERN OZARKS. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
EXTEND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT
QUICK FORWARD MOTIONS AND LESSER COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT LOCALIZED. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL, THESE
STORMS COULD CONTAIN ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AFTER RECENTLY GETTING DOUSED BY T.S. DEBBY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
TROPICAL DOWNPOURS, THE EASTERN CAROLINAS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL BOUTS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS STATIONARY FRONT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
COULD SPARK NUMEROUS SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. GIVEN MOST SOILS REMAIN OVERLY
SATURATED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO
HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS AND NEVER DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LOWER 48 INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS FROM THE PLAINS
TO THE NORTHEAST UNDERNEATH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE, WITH FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. SUMMER HEAT WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER, INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST TODAY
BEFORE A COOLING TREND COMMENCES. MEANWHILE, OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE AND REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
GULF COAST BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S
AND TRIPLE DIGITS. THIS EQUATES TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR MID-AUGUST, BUT FORECAST HIGHS AT THE
MOMENT DON'T APPEAR TO THREATEN ANY DAILY RECORDS.
ELSEWHERE, CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND ONGOING WILDFIRES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POOR AIR
QUALITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT.
SNELL
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