350
FXUS01 KWBC 102001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2024
VALID 00Z SUN AUG 11 2024 - 00Z TUE AUG 13 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST AND A SECOND AREA OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES, NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND
THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY EVENING...
...THERE ARE HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST
AND FLORIDAâ€
A WEAK FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN GULF
COAST THROUGH MONDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS
OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA, MOST OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA, AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON SUNDAY, THE LINGERING FRONT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA, EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA, AND EXTREME EASTERN
GEORGIA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, ON SATURDAY, DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES, NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND THE
GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
FURTHERMORE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MOREOVER, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
FURTHER, ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND A
VIGOROUS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/ OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI/NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
MOREOVER, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
ELSEWHERE, ON SATURDAY, PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EXPERIENCED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
MID-70S, PROMPTING HEAT ADVISORIES. SIMILARLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID-70S PROMPTED HEAT
ADVISORIES OVER FLORIDA.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page