342
FXUS01 KWBC 110737
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2024
VALID 12Z SUN AUG 11 2024 - 12Z TUE AUG 13 2024
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, AND PLAINS...
...LINGERING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...SULTRY SUMMER HEAT RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS WEEK...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE DAILY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST INTO THE PLAINS, AS WELL AS FLORIDA AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL ALSO
PROVIDE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN WHEN COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING
OVERTOP OF AN UPPER RIDGE SET UP OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING TODAY FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO CENTRAL
UTAH. COMPLEX TERRAIN AND THE SENSITIVE SLOT CANYON REGION OF UTAH
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IMPACTS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
HEAVY RAIN EXTEND TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RANGES AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL HELP AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. A FEW ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA, SOUTHEAST KANSAS, SOUTHWEST MISSOURI,
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS A POSSIBILITY FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BLACK
HILLS REGION. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, OVERLAPPING WITH SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS FROM LAST
WEEK'S WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. AS A RESULT, LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS
COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO AVOID DRIVING
THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS AND TO NOT SWIM OR PLAY IN FLOODWATER.
FOR MUCH OF THE NATION, SUMMER HEAT WILL BE ON HOLD TO START THE
WEEK AS A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
WEEKS. HOWEVER, BUILDING HEAT WILL BE FELT THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH AS HIGHS SOAR BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS BY MONDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY
LEVELS, AFTERNOONS WILL FEEL CLOSER TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 110
DEGREES IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IMMEDIATE GULF COAST.
IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT OFFER
MUCH RELIEF AS LOWS ONLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. THIS
LEVEL OF HEAT COULD AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR
HYDRATION, SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO FOLLOW PROPER HEAT SAFETY TIPS
AND CHECK ON VULNERABLE INDIVIDUALS.
ELSEWHERE, POOR AIR QUALITY DUE TO ONGOING WILDFIRES THROUGHOUT
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CARRY SMOKE EASTWARD OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC, LEADING TO HAZY SKIES FOR
SOME LOCATIONS.
SNELL
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page