194
FXUS01 KWBC 112013
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2024
VALID 00Z MON AUG 12 2024 - 00Z WED AUG 14 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST AND A SECOND AREA OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH
A THIRD AREA OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY EVENING...
...THERE ARE HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA, SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXASâ€
A DISORGANIZED AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/ OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI/NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, A LINGERING FRONT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA, EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA, AND EXTREME EASTERN
GEORGIA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON MONDAY, THE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A VIGOROUS PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI/NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHER, ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, EASTERN
GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
ELSEWHERE, PARTS OF FLORIDA, SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA, AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID-70S,
PROMPTING HEAT ADVISORIES. ADDITIONALLY, ONGOING WILDFIRES IN
PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAVE
SPAWNED AIR QUALITY ALERTS IN PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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