663
FXUS01 KWBC 120657
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2024
VALID 12Z MON AUG 12 2024 - 12Z WED AUG 14 2024
...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS STRETCHES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...DANGEROUS HEAT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST
THIS WEEK...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND POOR AIR QUALITY REMAINS THROUGHOUT
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST...
AN ACTIVE AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK THANKS IN PART TO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ORGANIZED COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
TODAY FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO THE OZARKS, WITH THE MAIN WEATHER
HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS THEN FORECAST TO SLIDE
EASTWARD EACH DAY THIS WEEK, CENTERED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY. THESE AREAS COINCIDE
WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY,
PRODUCING AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR THESE REGIONS AS WELL.
FOR THE SOUTHEAST, THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER FEW DAYS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVERLAPPING
WITH SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. URBAN CORRIDORS AND LOCATIONS WITH POOR DRAINAGE (EVEN
MORE DEGRADED THAN USUAL DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. DEBBY) WILL BE MOST AT RISK. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS
AND NEVER DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.
WHILE MOST OF THE COUNTRY ENJOYS A BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE
SUMMER HEAT, MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES
WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND BACK TO UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST TO
STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE,
WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LONE STAR STATE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS, HEAT INDICES MAY
REACH UP TO AROUND THE 110 DEGREE MARK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT OFFER MUCH RELIEF AS LOWS ONLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE
COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION AS DENOTED BY MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEATRISK STRETCHING FROM OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS TO THE GULF COAST AND
MUCH OF FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH DRY TERRAIN ARE FORECAST TO CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY.
MEANWHILE, ONGOING WILDFIRES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PUMP ADDITIONAL
SMOKE INTO THE ATMOSPHERE AND PRODUCE POOR AIR QUALITY FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION.
SNELL
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