671
FXCA20 KWBC 121919
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2024
NOTE: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING WARNINGS ON
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE. 1T 15 UTC...PTC FIVE CENTERED
NEAR 15.1N 55.6W AND WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST OR AT 280 DEGREES
AT 23KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR 1010 HPA
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT. FIVE
WILL FAVOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES AND LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY...AND ACROSS THE VI...PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. PLEASE FOLLOW NHC
GUIDANCE FOR OFFICIAL FORECASTS.
FORECAST BULLETIN 12 AUG 2024 AT 1915 UTC:
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE IS THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST IN
THE REGION. DEEP CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL FAVOR 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN
THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. IN BARBADOS AND
THE NORTHERN WINDWARDS IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH FAVORS MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHEAST VENEZUELA.
ON TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY... PTC FIVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 75-125MM IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VI AND PUERTO
RICO...WHILE TRAILING CONVECTION FAVORS MAXIMA OF 40-80MM FROM
DOMINICA/GUADELOUPE INTO SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS AND BARBUDA. FEEDER
BAND-LIKE CONVECTION WILL ALSO STIMULATE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES AND BARBADOS WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM....ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM
AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST VENEZUELA WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO CLUSTER PRIMARILY
IN SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO...WHERE EXPECT 30-60MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-150MM...WHILE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-10MM. IN THE VI EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE WILL FAVOR MODERATE AMOUNTS IN
NORTHERN COLOMB IA WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE ONSHORE
FLOW FAVORS SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON
MONDAY. IT IS FAVOR TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN EASTERN
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA/WEST PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM AS WELL. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT THE WAVE TO ENHANCE
DONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND
BELIZE...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
CHIAPAS/TABASCO...WHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
TRAILING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY IN EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHERN
NICARAGUA. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT ENHANCEMENT TO CLUSTER IN WEST
GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN CHIAPAS WHERE EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE IN EL SALVADOR/WEST HONDURAS/EASTERN AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND TAMPECHE/TABASCO/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
A THIRD FROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING WESTWARD SLOWLY ACROSS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AVAILABLE MOSITURE IS LIMITED IN THIS
REGION...HOWEVER...TRAILING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL FAVOR
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO. ON
MONDAY...INTERACTIONS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WEST
SONORA/ARIZONA WILL FAVRO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY IN THE NORTHERN
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. IN WEST JALISCO/NAYARIT EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. TRAILING MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO/VERACRUZ/OAXACA
WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
TRAILING MOISTURE TO STIMULATE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS EXTENSIVE
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO...WHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST OAXACA/GUERRERO INTO THE
SIERRA MADRE OF SONORA.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
FERNANDER (BDM)
MATHIAS...(CIAARA/MB)
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