936
FXSA20 KWBC 121930
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 12 AUG 2024 AT 1930 UTC:
ON MONDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS POSITION IN THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CONTINENT IN A ZONAL POSITION. THE BASE OF A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL BRASIL...AND EXTENDS FROM
THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. TO THE WEST...AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST REGION AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EAST INTO ARGENTINA AND URUGUAY BY TUESDAY MORNING. IN
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT...THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY NORTHERN MOVEMENT FROM SYSTEMS
TO THE SOUTH. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS PRONOUNCED IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL
PARA-BRASIL...FAVORING CONVECTION IN THE REGION ON MONDAY. TO THE
SOUTH...THE ENTRANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN SOUTHERN CHILE WILL
FAVOR PRECIPITATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...UNSEASONABLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED IN PARA AND EAST
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. IN SOUTH
COLOMBIA AND INTO EAST ECUADOR EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN
CHILE...THE ZONA SUR AND NORTHERN ZONA AUSTRAL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM.
INTO TUESDAY...THE RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS
WAY INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ARGENTINA AND CHILE...AND
REFLECT INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE COUPLING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN POLAR JETS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
SOUTHERN CONE OF CONTINENT...HOWEVER...REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER THE
REGION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONE...THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD...IN ASSOCIATION OF THE
JETS OVER THE SOUTHERN REGIONS OF ARGENTINA AND CHILE.
HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO
THE DAY BEFORE...AND FROM ARAUCANIA TO LOS LAGOS...EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. IN THE ARGENTINA SIDE...CHUBUT CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15MM WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. TO THE NORTH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED INTO BAHIA-BRASIL...AND MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED FROM
15-25MM. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE TROPICAL REGION OF SOUTH
AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND WESTERN BRASIL. EXPECT GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. A POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.
ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE HAS CROSSED
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHILE A TROUGH ENTERS INTO CENTRAL
CHILE...WHILE A MORE INTENSE JET ENTERS THE REGION...FAVORING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
PRESENTING A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM
FROM CENTRAL CHILE TO THE AUSTRAL REGION OF THE COUNTRY. TO THE
NORTH...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN BAHIA-BRASIL HAS BECOME STATIONARY
AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN EAST
BAHIA...FAVORING MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN TROPICAL SOUTH
AMERICA...THE PASSING OF TROUGHS AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE CAN FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE REGION IS LOW DUE TO THE
VERIFICATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AMOUNTS.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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