505
FXUS01 KWBC 130752
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2024
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 13 2024 - 12Z THU AUG 15 2024
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GULF COAST...
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND POOR AIR QUALITY CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND GREAT
BASIN...
A MID-AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS WEEK
WITH NUMEROUS AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
NATION. A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY, WITH THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH INTO
THE MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MOST LIKELY WEATHER HAZARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. SPECIFICALLY, THREE SEPARATE AREAS ALONG THE FRONT
STAND OUT TODAY AS HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODS. PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA REMAIN SENSITIVE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AS THE AREA CONTINUES TO CONTAIN SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS,
LEADING TO A CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AS LONG AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
KANSAS AND MISSOURI, AN INITIAL COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING CONTAINING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHILE A REFORMING AREA OF CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD CREATE ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS. THIS SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WITHIN A
FEW HOURS NEAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. ADDITIONALLY, NORTHEAST
COLORADO CAN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS CONTAINING INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY FORMS ALONG THE LEEWARD
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND PUSHES EASTWARD. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
ARE ADVISED TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS, HAVE A
PLAN SHOULD FLASH FLOODING OCCUR, AND NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS. BY MIDWEEK MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE MIDWEST
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY, ALONG WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND LIFTING WARM FRONT. ONCE AGAIN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
CONCERN AS AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT CREATES RIPE
CONDITIONS FOR SCATTERED VIGOROUS DOWNPOURS.
DANGEROUS SUMMER HEAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS
WEEK AS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS SPAN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF COAST. THE MOST ANOMALOUS AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HEAT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS REACH UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR MID-AUGUST. ELEVATED
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES UP TO 110
DEGREES DURING THE DAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AT NIGHT. PEOPLE SPENDING GREATER TIME OR
EFFORT OUTDOORS, OR IN A BUILDING WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING, ARE
AT AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
A PERSISTENT PATTERN SUPPORTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TODAY WITH DRY TERRAIN AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. RED FLAG
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FROM EASTERN OREGON TO IDAHO. ONGOING
WILDFIRES ALSO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SMOKE INTO THE ATMOSPHERE,
LEADING TO POOR AIR QUALITY.
SNELL
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