106
FXUS01 KWBC 131941
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2024
VALID 00Z WED AUG 14 2024 - 00Z FRI AUG 16 2024
...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST TO STRETCH
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GULF COAST...
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND POOR AIR QUALITY CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND GREAT
BASIN...
A MID-AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH NUMEROUS
AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE NATION. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY, WITH THE BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MOST LIKELY WEATHER
HAZARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER. SPECIFICALLY, THREE SEPARATE AREAS ALONG THE FRONT STAND
OUT TODAY (TUESDAY) AS HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODS. PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA REMAIN SENSITIVE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AS THE AREA CONTINUES TO CONTAIN SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS, LEADING TO A CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE
TO SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN EFFECT. FURTHER WEST INTO THE
MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS, ANOTHER ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED WITHIN A FEW HOURS CENTERED
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI, COVERED BY AN ASSOCIATED SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES TUESDAY EVENING AS
ACTIVITY FORMS ALONG THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND PUSHES
EASTWARD. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) MAINLY FOR SOME ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS, HAVE A PLAN SHOULD FLASH
FLOODING OCCUR, AND NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND LIFTING WARM FRONT. THE
FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH ONGOING
STORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER MISSOURI, AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT IN
IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL COVERING THESE REGIONS. SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THEN, ON
THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH FURTHER EASTWARD, WITH A SIMILAR
FLASH FLOODING/SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO EXPECTED. STORMS OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES WILL INITIALLY POSE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE BEFORE TRANSITIONING
INTO MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT
DOWNSTREAM FURTHER INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
DANGEROUS SUMMER HEAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS
WEEK AS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS SPAN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF COAST. THE MOST ANOMALOUS AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HEAT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS REACH UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR MID-AUGUST. ELEVATED
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES UP TO 110
DEGREES DURING THE DAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AT NIGHT. PEOPLE SPENDING GREATER TIME OR
EFFORT OUTDOORS, OR IN A BUILDING WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING, ARE
AT AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. ELSEWHERE,
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE RATHER PLEASANT FOR MID-AUGUST, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE. HIGHS IN THE 80S (AND EVEN
SOME 70S) WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.
LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC WILL TEND TO BE WARMER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S.
A PERSISTENT PATTERN SUPPORTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING WITH DRY
THUNDERSTORMS, DRY TERRAIN, AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. RED FLAG
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FROM EASTERN OREGON TO IDAHO. ONGOING
WILDFIRES ALSO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SMOKE INTO THE ATMOSPHERE,
LEADING TO POOR AIR QUALITY.
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