162
FXSA20 KWBC 131942
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 13 AUG 2024 AT 1940 UTC:
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH AMERICAN REGION...A POTENT UPPER
RIDGE IS ENTERING THE REGION AND INCREASING THE SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTH CHILE AND NORTH ARGENTINA ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE IS
SURROUNDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE NORTH...AND THE NORTH AND
SOUTH POLAR JET TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
POSITION OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC OCEAN THAT MAY MAY BRING A POTENT
JET IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. TO THE NORTH...THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS ENHANCING DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
NORTH BRASIL...AND INTO PERU. OVER THE TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA
REGION...DRIER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND
THUS LOWER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...FROM
SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...TO EAST COLOMBIA...AND NORTH
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG EAST BAHIA...WHERE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY. THE ENTRANCE OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN EAST
BAHIA-BRASIL. TO THE SOUTH...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH SOUTHERN CONE
OF THE CONTINENT PROPAGATES TO THE EAST AND IT IS LOCATED INTO
EAST ARGENTINA...URUGUAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEBILITATE INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS FURTHER NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST BRASIL. FOLLOWING BEHIND...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
MID LEVELS PROPAGATES OVER NORTHERN ARGENTINA...HOWEVER...EFFECTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
TRIGGERS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CONTINENT ON WEDNESDAY...THE
PRESSURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REFLECT A DECREASE IN
PRESSURE...AND ENHANCE THE SALLJ OVER BOLIVIA. THE GENERATION OF A
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER NORTH ARGENTINA AND WEST
PARAGUAY. TO THE EAST OF BRASIL...THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF BAHIA AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST. PRECIPITATION MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE
EXPECTED. IN SOUTHERN CHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTH AND EASTWARD. HOWEVER...A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL FAVOR A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. A
MAXIMA OF 15MM WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM AYSEN TO NORTH
MAGALLANES.
ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENTER THE
CONTINENT...WITH THE UPPER JET BECOMING MORE POTENT OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF CHILE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...IT WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE REGION. PRECIPITATION MAXIMA
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 15-25MM WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM SOUTH AYSEN TO MAGALLANES. TO THE NORTH...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EAST BAHIA-BRASIL...WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. INTO NORTHERN
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA...LOW AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS WILL BE ADVECTED TO THE WEST...AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION WITH THE TRADE WINDS...OVER THE GUIANAS...AND INTO PARA
AND AMAPA-BRASIL. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH
COLOMBIA...NORTH PERU...AND EAST ECUADOR...AND THEY CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
PALAVECINO...(SMN-ARGENTINA)
LOPEZ...(DMH-PARAGUAY)
LEDESMA...(WPC)
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