659
FXCA20 KWBC 132026
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
425 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 13 AUG 2024 AT 20 UTC:
PLEASE REVIEW THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THEIR WEBSITE:
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. AT 15 UTC... THE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED NEAR
16.9N 62.3W AND WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWESTWARD AT 17KT.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR 1003 HPA AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55KT. TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF US AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AS IT
CONTINUES MOVING THE SCATTERED BANDS OF STRONG CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS THAT
MAY EXCEED 200MM/EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND
VIEQUES...AND 75-150MM/EVENT IN PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND THE
REST OF THE VIRGIN ISLAND. IN TERMS OF 24-HOUR AMOUNTS...THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-150MM IN SOUTHEAST PUERTO
RICO AND PORTIONS OF THE VI...WHILE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
40-80MM. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...REMAINING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 75-125MM IN SOUTHERN PUERTO
RICO WHILE IN THE VI EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ONSHORE FLOW AND
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AMOUNTS ARE SET TO DECREASE
RAPIDLY THEREAFTER.
FOR THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL FAVOR MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN. ALTHOUGH A TUTT IS PRESENT OVER CUBA...LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL FAVOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER CUBA AND HAITI
THROUGH THE CYCLE...REINFORCED BY A SAL. ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SAL...DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE RESTRICTED TO HISPANIOLA AND CUBA
AND TO JAMAICA...IN A MORE ISOLATED MANNER.
IN MEXICO...THE UPPER TROUGH IN SONORA/ARIZONA IS INTERACTING WITH
THE MOIST PLUME THAT TRAILS A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALREADY
LOCATED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
WET CONDITIONS ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL THROUGH THE CYCLE
BUT ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...WHEN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN
NAYARIT/SOUTHERN SINALOA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. AMOUNTS
DECREASE THEREAFTER ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TO FAVOR GENERALLY
MAXIMA IN THE 15-35MM/DAY RANGE. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOCUS IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO THEREAFTER...WHERE ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TO THE NORTHEAST...A HIGH-PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT FAIR WEATHER. A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN BY
FRIDAY...BUT LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED PRECIPITATION.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 87W FROM 20N WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUESDAY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY TO HIGHLIGHT RAINFALL. ON TUESDAY...THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE WILL FAVOR MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH A MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DNA EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...PARTIALLY LIMITED MODERATE TRADE WIND SPEEDS. FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLT THURSDAY...THE TRAILING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
TO THIS SYSTEM WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
CHIAPAS/TABASCO/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. THIS THEN WILL HIGHLIGHT
AMOUNTS IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA...A
SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH CONVECTION FROM THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ WILL STIMULATE AMOUNTS IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ON
TUESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. THIS DECREASES TO MAXIMA OF
15-25MM ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL FAVOR AN
INCREASE TO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE INDUCED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTHWEST VENEZUELA
ON TUESDAY TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING TO STILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS
NOW IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. THE TROUGH LOSES DEFINITION THEREAFTER.
STILL...DIURNAL BREEZES WILL LIKELY FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN NORTHERN/WESTERN COLOMBIA AND WEST VENEZUELA.
LEDESMA...(WPC)
TINOCO...(WPC)
GALVEZ...(WPC)
JACKMAN...(BMS)
FERNANDER (BDM)
MATHIAS...(CIAARA/MB)
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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