235
FXUS01 KWBC 140717
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
317 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2024
VALID 12Z WED AUG 14 2024 - 12Z FRI AUG 16 2024
...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FORECAST TO STRETCH
FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...
...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GULF COAST...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM PROGRESSING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SPARK NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE
AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE
ALSO CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. ADDITIONALLY, A GRADUALLY
LIFTING WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OZARKS
MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT CENTERS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS, WITH URBAN AREAS
AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS MOST AT RISK. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AND EXTEND INTO THURSDAY AS DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS GROW UPSCALE AND POTENTIALLY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY REGIONS AT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCLUDE THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION TODAY AND MUCH OF
MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CAN'T BE
RULED OUT AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL AID IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FURTHER SOUTH, A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND LINGERING NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF SCATTERED SUMMER
CONVECTION. BE SURE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE IF SPENDING TIME
OUTDOORS AND SEEK SHELTER SHOULD STORMS BEGIN TO PRODUCE
LIGHTNING.
HEAT WILL REMAIN AND MAJOR WEATHER STORY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST
TO SPAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ELEVATED
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SOAR HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND 110 DEGREES IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS, WHICH COULD BREAK SEVERAL
DAILY RECORDS. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT CAN AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. THEREFORE, IT IS
IMPERATIVE TO FOLLOW PROPER HEAT SAFETY AND CHECK ON VULNERABLE
INDIVIDUALS.
SNELL
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