871
FXCA20 KWBC 141948
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 14 AUG 2024 AT 19:44 UTC:
AT 15 UTC...HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 67.6W.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 991 HPA...MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 65KT WITH GUSTS TO 80KT. ERNESTO WAS MOVING TO
THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14KT. PLEASE FOLLOW NHC UPDATES ON
ERNESTO.
HURRICANE ERNESTO IS THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST. ALTHOUGH THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO OPEN WATERS
OF THE ATLANTIC...FEEDER BAND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PUERTO RICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FAVORING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AFTER THIS PERIOD...EXPECT A SHARP DECREASE
IN ACCUMULATIONS. THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS IN
PUERTO RICO IN THE ORDER OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM DUE
TO INTERACTIONS WITH OROGRAPHY. NOTE THAT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE. IN HISPANIOLA...INDIRECT IMPACTS OF ERNESTO WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS...A PREVAILING LARGE SCALE
UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THIS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE PRESENCE OF A SAL AND ENHANCED
SUBSIDENCE WEST OF ERNESTO. ONE AREA OF INTEREST IS THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. HERE...ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW STIMULATED BY ERNESTO WILL
ADVECT A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST ARE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WHERE AN
EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. NOTE THAT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN BARBADOS...AS THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
IN MEXICO...THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE FROM CHIAPAS/SOUTH VERACRUZ ON WEDNESDAY
INTO JALISCO/COLIMA/NAYARIT BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR MODERATE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO EASTERN
OAXACA ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN SOUTHERN
CHIAPAS AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT THE WAVE TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FROM
OAXACA/SOUTHERN PUEBLA THROUGH MICHOACAN...AND LESSER AMOUNTS IN
AREAS NORTH OF 19N. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN SINALOA.
ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACTIVE ON A DAILY BASIS ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND
SOUTHWEST MEXICO...DECREASING FROM MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE SIERRA
MADRE ON WEDNESDAY TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON THURSDAY...AND
INCREASING AGAIN TO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON FRIDAY.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER CONVERGENT MJO
CONDITIONS AND THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT TRIGGERS. ACTIVITY WILL
BE MOSTLY PRODUCED BY SEASONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION AND MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO LIMIT TO THE 15-25MM/DAY RANGE. THE
APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ORIGINALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO WILL
FAVOR A SLIGHT INCREASE TO MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA ON WEDNESDAY.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED AS WELL...AND TO CLUSTER PRIMARILY ALONG THE ITCZ/NET
ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
LEDESMA...(WPC)
TINOCO...(WPC)
JACKMAN...(BMS)
FERNANDER (BDM)
MATHIAS...(CIAARA/MB)
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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