992
FXUS01 KWBC 141956
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2024
VALID 00Z THU AUG 15 2024 - 00Z SAT AUG 17 2024
...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES OVER THE
MIDWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GULF COAST...
A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUES TO HELP TRIGGER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LEADING TO THE THREAT OF SOME FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS (WEDNESDAY) EVENING. INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH A STRENGTHENING WAVE AS WELL AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME INTENSE, HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) FOR SOME
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
(LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE RISK OF SOME VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH THESE STORMS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A BROAD
WARM SECTOR SUPPORTED BY PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GIVEN THE THREAT FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND POTENTIAL TRAINING CONVECTION LEADING TO SOME FLASH FLOODING.
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SIMILARLY COVERS THE CHANCE FOR
SOME INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
BY FRIDAY, WITH STORMS LIKELY AND SOME CHANCE OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER.
HEAT WILL REMAIN THE MAJOR WEATHER STORY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST
TO SPAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ELEVATED
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SOAR HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND 110 DEGREES IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS, WHICH COULD BREAK SEVERAL
DAILY RECORDS. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT CAN AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. THEREFORE, IT IS
IMPERATIVE TO FOLLOW PROPER HEAT SAFETY AND CHECK ON VULNERABLE
INDIVIDUALS.
ELSEWHERE, SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEW ENGLAND
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH STORM CHANCES
SUBSEQUENTLY TAPERING OFF. TO THE SOUTH, PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL ALSO SEE SCATTERED STORM CHANCES THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
THURSDAY EVENING. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND AVERAGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH MID- TO
UPPER 80S EXPECTED. AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND
THE PASSING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
MORE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WEST WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE,
WITH 70S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LOW 80S INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN, WARMING CLOSER TO AVERAGE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH MID-80S TO LOW 90S.
PUTNAM/SNELL
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