326
FXUS01 KWBC 150641
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2024
VALID 12Z THU AUG 15 2024 - 12Z SAT AUG 17 2024
...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES OVER THE
MIDWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GULF COAST...
A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUES TO HELP TRIGGER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LEADING TO THE THREAT OF SOME FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. A BROAD WARM SECTOR SUPPORTED BY PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS
TO POTENTIALLY TURN SEVERE AND CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGHOUT
MISSOURI, ILLINOIS, AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE
EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
EFFECT GIVEN THE THREAT FOR SOME INTENSE DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL
TRAINING CONVECTION LEADING TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER SIMILARLY COVERS THE
CHANCE FOR SOME INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH STORMS LIKELY TO SPREAD AS
FAR EAST AS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC. SOME CHANCES OF
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE FORECAST.
HEAT WILL REMAIN THE MAJOR WEATHER STORY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND AND LIKELY
BEYOND. WIDESPREAD HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS ARE
FORECAST TO SPAN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SOAR HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND 110
DEGREES FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER, ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE MORE ARID
REGIONS WILL BE HIGHER AND WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS, WHICH COULD BREAK SEVERAL
DAILY RECORDS. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT CAN AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. THEREFORE, IT IS
IMPERATIVE TO FOLLOW PROPER HEAT SAFETY AND CHECK ON VULNERABLE
INDIVIDUALS.
ELSEWHERE, SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEW ENGLAND
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CHURNS OVER NOVA SCOTIA. TO THE SOUTH,
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SEE SCATTERED STORM
CHANCES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
THROUGH. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH A SHORTWAVE
PASSING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TONIGHT. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND STORM
CHANCES ARE SET TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
BY SATURDAY, WHERE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS THE GREATEST
CONCERN. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND AVERAGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH MID- TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTED. AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE
PASSING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. MORE
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. HIGHS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WEST WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE,
WITH 70S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LOW 80S INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN, WARMING CLOSER TO AVERAGE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN WITH MID-80S TO LOW 90S.
SNELL
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