999
FXUS01 KWBC 151926
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
325 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2024
VALID 00Z FRI AUG 16 2024 - 00Z SUN AUG 18 2024
...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...DANGEROUS HEAT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE EAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A BROAD
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AREA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) AREA
OVER A PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN STORM
HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN SEVERE STORMS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS, HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH
REPEAT/TRAINING STORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES.
HEAT WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES THAT COULD REACH UP TO 112 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WON'T
PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, LOWS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY DROP
TO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S, WHICH COULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY RECORDS
FOR WARM LOWS. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT CAN AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION, SO IT WILL BE
IMPERATIVE TO FOLLOW PROPER HEAT SAFETY AND CHECK ON VULNERABLE
INDIVIDUALS.
ELSEWHERE, SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NEW ENGLAND
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CHURNS OVER NOVA SCOTIA. TO THE SOUTH,
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEE SCATTERED STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
THROUGH AND STALLS NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. IN THE WEST, SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES ARE SET TO RETURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY, WHERE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING IS THE GREATEST CONCERN. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE AROUND AVERAGE ALONG THE EAST COAST,
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST, ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, AND BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
NORTHWEST.
DOLAN/SNELL
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