139
FXUS01 KWBC 160747
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 AM EDT FRI AUG 16 2024
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 16 2024 - 12Z SUN AUG 18 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC, THEN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE
TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE FRONT WILL INTERSECT A POOL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE
WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ON SATURDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/EASTERN OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, TENNESSEE VALLEY,
AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, EASTERN
GREAT BASIN, AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE
EVENING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND MOISTURE MOVING OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CREATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER-90S TO LOW-100S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S HAVE
PROMPTED EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE SWELTERING SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH.
A PROLONGED STRETCH OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES
ARE ALSO FORECAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. MOREOVER, THE COMBINATION
OF SUMMER HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES NEAR 110F. PEOPLE SPENDING GREATER TIME OR EFFORT OUTDOORS
OR IN A BUILDING WITHOUT COOLING IS AT AN INCREASED RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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