411
FXSA20 KWBC 161923
PMDSA
SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2024
GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/
SOUTH AMERICAN FORECAST BULLETIN FOR 16 AUG 2024 AT 1930 UTC:
ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH
PACIFIC...ENTERING THE SOUTHERN CONE OF THE CONTINENT BY FRIDAY
EVENING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FAVOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN CHILE AND SOUTHERN ARGENTINA. THIS
WILL ALSO BE ASSISTED BY THE PASSING OF A SHORT WAVE IN TROUGH IN
THE MID LEVELS...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARGENTINA. TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES OVER THE REGIONS
OF PARAGUAY...ARGENTINA...URUGUAY...AND SOUTHERN BRASIL...AND
ENHANCED BY THE JET STREAM IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IN ADDITION...THE
SALLJ IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE SOUTHWARD...INTO SOUTHERN
BRASIL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST URUGUAY. IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT...MOISTURE IS LOCATED INTO OVER SOUTH
COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...PERU...AND WEST BRASIL. THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE ASSISTING IN ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
CONVERGING NEAR THE ANDES. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHILE. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE IN
SOUTH BRASIL AND URUGUAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
SIMILARLY...THE NORTHWEST REGION OF SOUTH AMERICA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN WESTERN CHILE ENTERS BY
SATURDAY EVENING AND ENHANCES THE DIVERGENT CONDITIONS OVER THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...EXPECT SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ANTOFAGASTA...ATACAMA...AND FROM VALPARAISO TO
O'HIGGINS. INTO THE SOUTHERN REGION OF BRASIL AND IN URUGUAY...THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AND FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT CAN CONTINUE TO
EXPECT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO BE SIMILAR TO THE DAY BEFORE AND
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE GUIANAS...AND IN NORTH PERU AND WEST
AMAZONAS.
BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW TO
THE WEST OF CENTRAL CHILE...REFLECTING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WEST OF ARAUCANIA. DUE TO THE COLD AIR INTRUSION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN THE REGION...AND INCREASED VORTICITY
IN THE MID LEVELS...NUEQUEN TO SOUTH MENDOZA-ARGENTINA CAN EXPECT
SNOWFALL WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25CM...AND HIGHER ISOLATED TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE. IN NORTH AND EAST URUGUAY...THE PRESENCE OF A SHORT WAVE
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL FAVOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION.
INCREASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION...AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...THE REGION COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
THE NORTHERN REGION OF THE CONTINENT CAN EXPECT A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE DECREASES ON SUNDAY.
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20MM.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page