718
FXCA20 KWBC 161959
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 16 AUG 2024 AT 19:30 UTC:
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION IS UPPER CONVERGENT AND IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WEST IN THE DOMAIN...A TUTT CONTINUES CENTERING OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
SUNDAY TO THEN START MEANDERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TO CENTER OVER
NORTHEAST DURANGO BY SUNDAY EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...THE TUTT WILL
HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS IN PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST MEXICO GIVEN
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. LOWER IN THE
TROPOSPHERE...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE FOCUSING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. FURTHERMORE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PROPAGATING ALONG SOUTHWEST MEXICO ON FRIDAY...SINALOA/NAYARIT ON
SATURDAY AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...EXPECT THE LARGEST ACCUMULATION IN SOUTHWEST
MEXICO WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA IN THE 20-45MM RANGE FROM
PUEBLA/MORELOS/GUERRERO WEST INTO NAYARIT AND ZACATECAS. ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...ENHANCED MOISTURE TRAILING THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS TO INTERACT WITH THE BASE OF THE TUTT TO THE NORTH TO
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM MEXICO/DISTRITO FEDERAL INTO NAYARIT
AND SOUTHERN ZACATECAS...IN AREAS SOUTH EXPECT MAXIMA IN THE
15-35MM/DAY RANGE. IN THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM CENTRAL SINALOA INTO
SONORA. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN JALISCO WHILE
ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MEXICO...FROM GUERRERO/MICHOACAN INTO
SOUTHERN SONORA...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
IN THE BAHAMAS...NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF HURRICANE ERNESTO
HAS ADVECTED A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY TO
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FRONTOLIZE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANDROS
ISLAND AND BIMINI. EXPECT A DECREASE IN ACCUMULATION THEREAFTER.
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA
EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AS A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM
THE CARIBBEAN. THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG
ITCZ CONVERGENCE IN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH
OF THE MOIST PLUME ORIGINALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO AND LATER AN
EASTERLY WAVE WILL LIKELY FAVOR AN INCREASING TREND. BY
SUNDAY...EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
SOUTHWEST PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...WHILE IN CENTRAL PANAMA
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ITCZ CONVERGENCE IN NORTHEAST COSTA RICA
WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ALSO ON SUNDAY...A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOIST PLUME ARE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS INTO BELIZE/SOUTHWEST YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. THIS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN AMOUNTS TO 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FROM CHIAPAS/GUATEMALA INTO BELIZE AND WEST
HONDURAS...WHILE IN EL SALVADOR AND THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATINV WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY...BUT LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY LIMIT MAXIMA FO 15-20MM IN THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA ON FRIDAY. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT ENHANCEMENT TO CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA
AND WEST VENEZUELA WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY CLUSTER IN PANAMA ON SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GALVEZ...(WPC)
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