740
FXUS01 KWBC 180736
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 AM EDT SUN AUG 18 2024
VALID 12Z SUN AUG 18 2024 - 12Z TUE AUG 20 2024
....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND THEN TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE OFF MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ATLANTIC
WHILE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWARD OFF MOST OF THE
GULF COAST AND THEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND GULF COAST
STATES. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
SOUTHEAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
ALSO, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED BY THE BOUNDARY WILL
CREATE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
THEREFORE, THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL
PRODUCE RAIN, WITH MAYBE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OVER PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
MOVING OVER THE TOP OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
MOREOVER, MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, EASTERN
GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
LATE EVENING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ON MONDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST. WHILE, UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHER,
DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW-100S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S, WHICH HAVE
PROMPTED EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SWELTERING
SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH AS THE PROLONGED STRETCH
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FOCUS ON PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-80S/UPPER-70S ARE ALSO FORECAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT.
MOREOVER, THE COMBINATION OF SUMMER HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
SUPPORT DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES NEAR 110F. THEREFORE, PEOPLE
SPENDING MORE TIME OR EFFORT OUTDOORS OR IN A BUILDING WITHOUT
COOLING ARE AT AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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