549
FXUS01 KWBC 181956
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2024
VALID 00Z MON AUG 19 2024 - 00Z WED AUG 21 2024
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY...
...SOME RELIEF EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THIS WEEK
BUT DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...INCREASED RISK FOR SPREADING OF WILDFIRES FROM CENTRAL NEVADA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON THROUGH TUESDAY...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE GULF COAST STATES, WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS, CLEARING A MAJORITY
OF THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS REPEATING OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
THE GREATEST RISK BEING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST, GULF COAST STATES AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A SIGNIFICANT
COOLING TREND FOR THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MID-AUGUST
AVERAGES.
HIGH HEAT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 105 TO LOCALLY OVER 115
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE HEAT WILL
REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK FOR TEXAS, EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO NEW MEXICO.
OUT WEST, ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT, LOCATED OVER THE
INTERIOR OF THE NORTHWEST, WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO OREGON AND
WASHINGTON (WEST OF THE BOUNDARY) WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME
RAIN FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY HOWEVER, HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE THE BIG CONCERN BUT RATHER DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS FAVORING INCREASED RISKS FOR WILDFIRES FROM CENTRAL
NEVADA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER PATTERN, THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR MULTIPLE DAYS.
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL SEE MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
FAVOR A RISK FOR SHORT TERM HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED TO
SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL
OVERLAP WITH A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UTAH AND PORTIONS
OF EASTERN IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING, WITH THE
OVERLAPPING RISK EXTENDING EAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO FOR
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE THREATS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING APPEAR LOWER BUT A LOCALIZED THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF MONTANA AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
OTTO
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