787  
FXUS01 KWBC 190743  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
343 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2024  
 
VALID 12Z MON AUG 19 2024 - 12Z WED AUG 21 2024  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NEW  
ENGLAND ON MONDAY...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...  
 
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
 
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST ACROSS THE  
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST AND THEN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATE  
WILL MOVE OFF MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE LINGERING OVER  
THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AS A PLUME  
OF MOISTURE FEDS INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A  
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NEW  
ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL  
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,  
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
 
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT  
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GULF COAST STATE.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE  
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.  
 
IN ADDITION, ON MONDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE  
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO.  
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH  
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND  
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.  
 
FURTHERMORE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, EASTERN  
GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO  
LATE EVENING ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL BE OVER A MUCH SMALLER AREA OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ADJACENT  
REGIONS. ADDITIONALLY, DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN  
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER, ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW  
WILL MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, CREATING RAIN OVER PARTS OF  
THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO  
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA.  
 
AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE AREAS UNDER EXCESSIVE  
HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE REDUCED TO PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOREOVER, PEOPLE  
SPENDING MORE TIME OR EFFORT OUTDOORS OR IN A BUILDING WITHOUT  
COOLING IN THE AREAS OF HEAT WARNINGS ARE STILL AT AN INCREASED  
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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