787
FXUS01 KWBC 190743
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
343 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2024
VALID 12Z MON AUG 19 2024 - 12Z WED AUG 21 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST AND THEN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATE
WILL MOVE OFF MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE LINGERING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AS A PLUME
OF MOISTURE FEDS INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GULF COAST STATE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.
IN ADDITION, ON MONDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
FURTHERMORE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, EASTERN
GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
LATE EVENING ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE OVER A MUCH SMALLER AREA OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ADJACENT
REGIONS. ADDITIONALLY, DISORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN
TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER, ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, CREATING RAIN OVER PARTS OF
THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA.
AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE AREAS UNDER EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE REDUCED TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOREOVER, PEOPLE
SPENDING MORE TIME OR EFFORT OUTDOORS OR IN A BUILDING WITHOUT
COOLING IN THE AREAS OF HEAT WARNINGS ARE STILL AT AN INCREASED
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
ZIEGENFELDER
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