826
FXCA20 KWBC 191919
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 19 AUG 2024 AT 19:20 UTC:
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A MORE CONVERGENT UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE TROPICAL REGION WITH THE CFS MODEL
FORECASTING A POTENT CONVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INHIBIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
IN MEXICO...A CLOSED LOW TUTT IS POSITIONED IN THE NORTH AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...FAVORING SOME DIVERGENCE FROM
WEST COAHUILA AND NORTH ZACATECAS TO SONORA...SINALOA...AND NORTH
NAYARIT. A RIDGE IN THE MID LEVELS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEEPER
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE EAST FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
STATES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
COUNTRY...DIURNAL HEATING IS FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
FROM THE AFTERNOON TO THE EVENING ON MONDAY. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE TUTT
PROPAGATES FURTHER WEST...OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A SIMILAR LOCATION.
FROM TUESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT AN EASTERLY WAVE
TO ARRIVE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PROPAGATE WEST INTO
GUERRERO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ON
MONDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM BELIZE...AND NORTH INTO
QUINTANA ROO-MEXICO. FROM SONORA TO SINALOA...AND PORTIONS OF WEST
JALISCO CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE ENTRANCE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND EAST OAXACA. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
GUERRERO/WEST OAXACA WITH ONSHORE FLOW FAVORING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. A GENERALIZED DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST MEXICO...WITH THE DECREASE IN AVAILABLE. MAXIMA OF
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30MM. BY WEDNESDAY...A
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND INTO
BELIZE...AND NORTH GUATEMALA...FAVORING MAXIMA OF 20-35M. THE
EASTERLY WAS IS LOCATED OVER TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ...AND EXTENDS
INTO NORTH OAXACA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS
CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND IT IS REFLECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH
THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JETS. EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS...IS
AN EASTERLY WAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN EAST
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND NORTHWEST PANAMA BY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS WAVE...IN ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL JETS...WILL FAVOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...FROM NORTH
HONDURAS...TO NORTHEAST COSTA RICA. TO THE EAST...OVER HAITI...THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTO NORTH COLOMBIA...EXPECT A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL BE FAST MOVING DUE TO THE LLJ IN THE
TRADES. LOW AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
WAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WEST. ON MONDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN COLOMBIA. ON TUESDAY...THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN WESTERN CUBA...AND INTO THE
EASTERN COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN CENTRAL CUBA...AND FROM
NORTHEAST HONDURAS...TO NORTH COSTA RICA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND
SIMILAR MAXIMA MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THE EVENING. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DRIER
AIR...AND THUS MAXIMA WILL REMAIN BELOW 15MM IN EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL FAVOR THE CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE EASTERN COASTS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM
NICARAGUA TO COSTA RICA.
A TUTT IS SITUATED OVER THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN THE PRESENCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IS PRESENT...THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS LOW
FOR THE REGION AND THUS PRECIPITATION VALUES WILL REFLECT DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MONDAY WILL BE THE
DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION...WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. INTO
TUESDAY...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM...WITH THE DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
DECREASE...WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINAL. MAXIMA OF 15MM IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTH BAHAMAS.
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN
COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION...WITH MAXIMA
BELOW 25MM. WHILE A PASSING TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA CAN FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS. A DECREASE IN MOISTURE
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...AND AMOUNTS BELOW 25MM ARE EXPECTED FROM
WESTERN VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. AN ENTERING INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE
GUIANAS. BY WEDNESDAY...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT CONTINUES. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM THE
LAKE MARACAIBO REGION TO NORTHEAST COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. WHILE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
WESTERN COLOMBIA. INCREASED MOISTURE FROM NORTH VENEZUELA TO THE
GUIANAS WILL FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA BELOW 25MM.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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