357
FXUS01 KWBC 191958
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2024
VALID 00Z TUE AUG 20 2024 - 00Z THU AUG 22 2024
...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...
...RECORD BREAKING HEAT EXPECTED IN TEXAS WHILE LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST, NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE A SLOW BUT STEADY
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT REPEAT OVER THE SAME LOCATION,
DUE TO ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY
FROM THE MIDWEST TO NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW MID-LATE AUGUST
AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID-WEEK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO THE APPALACHIANS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED
TO ITS SOUTH, EXTENDING NORTHWARD...WEST OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE...INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL SEE THREATS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT AS MOISTURE FLOWS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS AND MEETS WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT.
SIMILAR SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED SLOW MOVING BUT
HIGH RAINFALL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT AREAS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY CONTAINED TO
ARIZONA, UTAH AND COLORADO BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH, A STUBBORN, SLOW MOVING RIDGE ALOFT OVER
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
INTO MUCH OF TEXAS, SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. SOME DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE MET ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105
TO NEAR 115 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN. SOME OF THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK.
OTTO
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