168
FXUS01 KWBC 200725
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
325 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2024
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 20 2024 - 12Z THU AUG 22 2024
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHWEST...
..RECORD BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS TEXAS
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER, THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. HAS FINALLY LARGELY CLEARED THE COAST,
ASIDE FROM COASTAL MAINE WHERE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE EAST,
BRINGING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURE
DEPARTURES OF 10 TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES FOR MID-AUGUST ARE EXPECTED
FOR GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. PLAN ON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AND
70S FOR MANY AREAS FROM THE MIDWEST TO NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
STORY FOR THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE APPALACHIANS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SETTLE TO ITS SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION AND THEN EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS,
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS. THIS
BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH INTERACTIONS WITH ANOTHER PASSING WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WILL BRING THREATS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
ADVERTISING A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
MEANWHILE, DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. WILL BRING A DAILY THREAT OF LOCALIZED AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. SLOW MOVING BUT INTENSE RAINFALL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA, UTAH, COLORADO, AND NEW
MEXICO. FOR TODAY, THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED, A
GREATER THREAT WILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING EXISTS.
FINALLY, UNDERNEATH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, RECORD BREAKING
HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AND MANY DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 90S
AND TRIPLE DIGITS. COMBINED WITH THE OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY, DAILY
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES UP TO 110F WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CREATE
A DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR SOME GROUPS, PARTICULARLY ANYONE
SPENDING LARGE AMOUNTS OF TIME OUTDOORS. THEY WILL BE AT A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. SOME OF THE HEAT IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE/END OF
THE WEEK.
TAYLOR
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