566
FXCA20 KWBC 202009
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
408 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 20 AUG 2024 AT 2000 UTC:
THE TROPICAL REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY DRY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN MEXICO...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND EXTENDS INTO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO. THE PRESENCE OF A TUTT IN THE
NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL FAVOR SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DO NOT FAVOR HEAVIER CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT MEXICO. ON TUESDAY...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS EXPECTED IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. THIS WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERLY WAVE
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WEST INTO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
OAXACA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. FROM TABASCO TO
YUCATAN...AND INTO NORTH GUATEMALA AND BELIZE...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM WITH THE PRESENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND ONSHORE
FLOW. ON THURSDAY...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PROPAGATION OF
THE EASTERLY WAVE AND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE THAT ENTERS
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT ALIGNED IN THE SPEED
OF THE PROPAGATION AND ITS LOCATION FOR THE FORECAST ON DAY 3. IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND OAXACA REGION...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35M. ELSEWHERE FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA...AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM
EASTERN NICARAGUA TO PANAMA...DUE TO THE PASSING OF A TROPICAL
WAVE AND THE CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN REGIONS
FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA. IN ADDITION...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER COSTA RICA/PANAMA...FAVORING CONVECTION
OVER THE REGION. ON TUESDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM FROM SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA TO NORTHWEST PANAMA...AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FROM THE GUANACASTE PENINSULA TO EAST PANAMA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND NORTHWEST COSTA RICA. EAST
NICARAGUA...TO NORTH COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT 20-45MM. THE PRESENCE
OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM SOUTH
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. BY THURSDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER...THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
PAPAGAYO LLJ...AS WELL AS THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH LOCATED IN COSTA
RICA...CAN FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...THE PRESENCE OF LOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE
OVER MOST OF THE REGION WILL INHIBIT THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. IN WEST COLOMBIA...EXPECT WESTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW TO FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTAL
REGION...WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHERN REGION DUE TO THE ENTRANCE OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE
ANDEAN MOUNTAIN REGION IN COLOMBIA...CONVERGING AND FAVORING
CONVECTION. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
WESTERN SIDE OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...AND MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN THE
20-35MM RANGE. GENERALIZED CONVECTION OVER THE TROPICAL REGION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...DUE TO THE PROPAGATION OF ADDITIONAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN CONTINUES TO SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JETS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 30MM THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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