029
FXUS01 KWBC 210752
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 AM EDT WED AUG 21 2024
VALID 12Z WED AUG 21 2024 - 12Z FRI AUG 23 2024
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPANDING INTO PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE IS
AN INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS 65 KNOTS OR
GREATER.
IN ADDITION, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP
CREATE RAIN WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEAST, DEVELOPING A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW BY THURSDAY EVENING.
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
FURTHERMORE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, LOW-LYING AREAS, NARROW
CANYONS/GULLIES, AND BURN SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON THURSDAY, THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTHWARD
OVER THE AREA. LIKEWISE, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN UTAH, NORTHERN ARIZONA, SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO, AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, LOW-LYING AREAS, NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES, AND
BURN SCARS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, AS THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MOVES
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ELSEWHERE, AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST
COAST WILL DEVELOP RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S, WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, PROMPTING EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND UPPER
70S, LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE,
PEOPLE SPENDING MORE TIME OR EFFORT OUTDOORS OR IN A BUILDING
WITHOUT COOLING IN AREAS WITH HEAT WARNINGS ARE STILL AT AN
INCREASED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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