260
FXCA20 KWBC 211959
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 PM EDT WED AUG 21 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 21 AUG 2024 AT 2000 UTC:
IN THE REGION OF MEXICO...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND EXTENDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY CAN EXPECT AN EASTERLY WAVE PROPAGATING OVER THE
REGION AND FAVOR PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE
DEFINITION ONCE IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF MEXICO FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERLY
WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20 IN VERACRUZ AND SOUTH
OAXACA...WHILE PORTIONS OF TABASCO AND CHIAPAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. OVER TO THE WEST...DIURNAL HEATING WILL FAVOR SHOWERS
FROM SONORA TO SINALOA...AS WELL AS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. WITH
THE INVERSION LOCATED OVER THE REGION...MOST CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SHALLOW BUT CAN FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM
SINALOA TO NAYARIT. PORTIONS OF GUERRERO CAN ALSO SEE SIMILAR
AMOUNTS. TO THE EAST IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE...A
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE REGION AND FAVORS MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM
YUCATAN/QUINTANA ROO TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. PORTIONS OF
EL SALVADOR CAN SEE MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON THURSDAY...THE TROPICAL
WAVE SLOWLY PROPAGATES INTO OAXACA AND VERACRUZ...WHERE IT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF...20-40MM IN SOUTHERN OAXACA...AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN EASTERN MEXICO. INTO WESTERN MEXICO....A SLIGHT
DECREASE OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REFLECT THE DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. FROM NAYARIT TO JALISCO EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM...WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION CAN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS CAMPECHE
AND EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. THERE...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF...15-30MM. ON FRIDAY...THE CONDITIONS FOR BOTH THE EASTERLY AND
THE TROPICAL WAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE...AS A MORE POTENT
CIRCULATION OFF SHORE IS DEEPENING AND IS CURRENTLY BEING WATCHED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THAT MORE POTENT CIRCULATION...THE MID TO UPPER
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE REGION...THE WAVES
LOSE DEFINITION AS THEY PROPAGATE TO WESTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER THEY
WILL STILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM JALISCO TO WESTERN OAXACA.
THE REST OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF MEXICO WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NAYARIT AND SOUTHERN
SINALOA...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM SOUTHERN SONORA TO NORTH
JALISCO.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE
EXPERIENCING THE MIDSUMMER DROUGHT...WHILE TO THE SOUTH...THE
PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ OVER SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND THE
LLJ OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE FAVORING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE OVER
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WHERE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD
REMAIN TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRIES. ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE CONTINUOUS PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ IN THE PACIFIC SIDE
OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AS WELL AS THE CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LLJ AND THEIR CYCLONIC SIDE WILL FAVOR
PRECIPITATION THOSE TWO DAYS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM COSTA RICA TO WEST
PANAMA. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED FROM EAST HONDURAS TO EAST
NICARAGUA. ON THURSDAY...THE PANAMANIAN LOW BECOME MORE PROMINENT
OVER PANAMA AND WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN COSTA RICA AND
WESTERN PANAMA. BY FRIDAY...GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE
EXPECTED FROM EAST HONDURAS TO WEST PANAMA.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IN THE
BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA...EXPECT THE
PROPAGATION OF A TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
SEABOARD...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ON THURSDAY...THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH
TO THE NORTH AND ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE REGIONS OF BAHAMAS
AND CUBA. ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTEND TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
BY FRIDAY EVENING AND PROVIDE DIVERGENT CONDITIONS OVER CUBA. THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. AN
INCREASING AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN NORTH BAHAMAS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. ON THURSDAY...THE TROPICAL
WAVE ENTERS THE BAHAMAS...AND EAST CUBA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-30MM IN THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...AND MAXIMA OF 15MM
IN CUBA. MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
WITH THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...MAXIMA OF 25-50MM WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...WHILE
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN CENTRAL CUBA.
GENERALIZED AMOUNTS BELOW 15MM ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN.
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...THE ONSHORE FLOW IN
WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION IS LOW AS VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN THAT MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS STAYED OFF SHORE.
IN THE NORTHERN REGION OF COLOMBIA AND THE LAKE MARACAIBO
REGION...THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION AND ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL OF DEEP CONVECTION. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN THE NORTHERN PART OF COLOMBIA TO THE LAKE MARACAIBO
REGION. ON THURSDAY...AN INCREASE IN FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW IN
WESTERN COLOMBIA CAN FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BY FRIDAY...BOTH
REGIONS WILL SEE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHERE THE LAKE MARACAIBO
REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE THE WESTERN REGION OF
COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page