774
FXUS01 KWBC 220747
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
347 AM EDT THU AUG 22 2024
VALID 12Z THU AUG 22 2024 - 12Z SAT AUG 24 2024
...RECORD HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...
..RECORD COLD DEVELOPS ACROSS CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
...THERE ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S TO CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FURTHERMORE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH, NORTHERN ARIZONA, SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO, AND
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, LOW-LYING AREAS, NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES, AND BURN SCARS
THE MOST VULNERABLE.
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE A
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING LOW-LYING AREAS,
NARROW CANYONS/GULLIES, AND BURN SCARS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID
RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
ADDITIONALLY, A SECOND FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES BY SATURDAY. ON THURSDAY, THE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS OF
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
MOREOVER, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP
CREATE RAIN WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. FURTHER, AN AREA OF
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL DEVELOP A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA AND A LINGERING BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
AND MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S, WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, PROMPTING EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND UPPER
70S, LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE,
PEOPLE SPENDING MORE TIME OR EFFORT OUTDOORS OR IN A BUILDING
WITHOUT COOLING IN AREAS WITH HEAT WARNINGS ARE STILL AT AN
INCREASED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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