100
FXUS01 KWBC 222001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2024
VALID 00Z FRI AUG 23 2024 - 00Z SUN AUG 25 2024
...THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING OVER MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT...
...RECORD HEAT BEGINS TO RELENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND...
...CRITICAL FIRE RISK AND RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT BASIN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SUPPORT MONSOON
STORMS IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A WANING HEAT WAVE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONGOING MONSOONAL STORMS IN THE FOUR CORNERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THERE'S SOME FLASH
FLOODING THREAT, AS DEPICTED BY OUR SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA,
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, CENTRAL-SOUTHERN UTAH, AND SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO. SLOT CANYONS ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT DWINDLES A BIT HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND AN
ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW ENTERS THE WEST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DISLODGE FROM ITS CENTERED POSITION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. IN THE
MEANTIME, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100S AND LOWS IN
THE 70S AND LOW 80S WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF WESTERN
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL TIE OR
BREAK EXISTING TEMPERATURE RECORDS. THINGS BEGIN TO MODERATE LATER
THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
THE DEEP AND ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY WILL
REPRESENT 20-30 DEGREE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS MINIMUM HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE TIED OR BROKEN, PARTICULARLY
OVER SECTIONS OF CALIFORNIA'S CENTRAL VALLEY AND THE GREAT BASIN.
IN ADDITION TO THE RECORD COLD IN THE WEST, THE UPPER LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN THE WIND FIELD (SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING 25MPH) IN THE
GREAT BASIN WHILE MAINTAINING THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, THIS WILL
SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEVADA, SOUTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN UTAH THROUGH
FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE TONIGHT, SOME FRONT RANGE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND
PROPAGATE FROM NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEPICTED.
KEBEDE
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