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FXCA20 KWBC 222002
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 22 AUG 2024 AT 2000 UTC:
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE TROPICAL REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE
THE CONVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO INHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE PRECIPITATION MAXIMA
REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ON THURSDAY...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED IN THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
MEXICO. TO THE SOUTH...A SMALL TUTT IS CENTERED IN NORTH PUEBLA
AND EXTENDS TO THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR AND TO THE EAST INTO
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. THIS TUTT WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TO AN EASTERLY WAVE EXTENDING THROUGH VERACRUZ INTO SOUTHERN
OAXACA. AS THESE FEATURES PROPAGATE TO THE WEST...AND INTERACT TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO
THE EAST IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL GUATEMALA AND INTO
CAMPECHE-MEXICO. ON FRIDAY...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND EXTENDS INTO THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
NEGATIVELY WITH THE WAVES AND THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO LOSE
DEFINITION AS THEY CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BY SATURDAY...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WEST INTO THE
SIERRA MADRE DEL OCCIDENTE...WHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THE
REMNANTS OF THE EASTERLY WAVE CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WEST INTO WEST
MEXICO. OVER IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
ENTERING THE REGION AND WILL FAVOR THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE DISSIPATING
TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM SOUTHERN VERACRUZ
TO CHIAPAS. WHILE THE DISSIPATING EASTERLY WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN GUERRERO AND WEST OAXACA. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED FROM SINALOA TO JALISCO/COLIMA. ON FRIDAY...DUE THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN REGION
OF MEXICO WILL FAVOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM
SINALOA...ALONG THE WESTERN EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL...AND INTO
WESTERN OAXACA. BY SATURDAY...THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS
DECREASED...MAKING WAY TO MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM SINALOA TO WEST
JALISCO. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE
TO THE ENTRANCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO...EXPECT
ISOLATED MAXIMA BELOW 25MM.
IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH IS ACTIVE IN
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA. THE
GENERALIZED CIRCULATION IN THE REGION IS FAVORING ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE WEST IN THE WESTERN SIDES OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND
WEST COLOMBIA....WHILE SIMILAR ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
EASTERN SIDES OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ON THURSDAY...THE AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA COULD REACH VALUES HIGHER THAN 60MM THAT COULD REACH THE
WESTERN COASTS OF COLOMBIA. INTO FRIDAY...THE VALUES COULD
DECREASE...WHICH COULD BE REFLECTED IN THE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH ONSHORE FLOW. BY SATURDAY...THE PANAMANIAN LOW SHOW
SIGNS OF DEBILITATION...HOWEVER..THE ONSHORE FLOW EFFECTS WILL
CONTINUE FROM SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO WESTERN COLOMBIA. FOR
PRECIPITATION VALUES...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM
COSTA RICA TO WESTERN COLOMBIA...REACHING THE EJE CAFETERO REGION
OF COLOMBIA. ON FRIDAY...THE DECREASE IN MAXIMA IS EXPECTED...AND
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WESTERN COLOMBIA COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM...DUE TO FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW. ON SATURDAY...THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION OF COLOMBIA CAN SEE MAXIMA OF
30-60MM.
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN...THE ARRIVAL OF A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS INTO THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA ON
THURSDAY. THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION IN THE REGION. ON FRIDAY...THIS INTERACTION IS EXPECTED
TO ENHANCE AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL REACHES INTO
NORTH BAHAMAS. FRIDAY CAN EXPECT TO SEE AS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN NORTH BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...WITH THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
APPROACHING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE PROPAGATION
TO THE WEST...THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALSO
MOVES TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF CUBA AND INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ON THURSDAY...THE BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...WITH SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. OTHER REGIONS OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 25MM. ON FRIDAY...THE
CHANCES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. BY SATURDAY...CUBA AND THE BAHAMA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...AND THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
DECREASED IN THE REGION.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED IN THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN BRASIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. FROM SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...TO WESTERN COLOMBIA...AND INTO
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...THE ISOLATED MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
25MM. ON FRIDAY...THE MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE GUIANAS WITH THE
ENTRANCE OF TROUGH IN THE TRADES. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FROM
GUYANA TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA...AND INTO COLOMBIA. ON SATURDAY...THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO NORTHEAST
VENEZUELA...AND PORTIONS OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...WHERE THEY CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-50MM...POTENTIALLY ASSISTED WITH THE BASE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT THAT IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA...AND INTO NORTH
COLOMBIA...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHERE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS PRESENT.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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