079
FXUS01 KWBC 231858
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2024
VALID 00Z SAT AUG 24 2024 - 00Z MON AUG 26 2024
...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND...
...RECORD HEAT BEGINS TO RELENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND BUT NEAR RECORD COOL IN THE EASTERN U.S. AND CALIFORNIA...
...CRITICAL FIRE RISK AND RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT BASIN...
AN ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHARPLY CONTRASTING WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE U.S. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A WARM UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN TWO DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOWS/TROUGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
EAST AND WEST COASTS. A DEEP AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL SUPPORT MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SLOT CANYONS AND BURN
SCARS ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT DWINDLES A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND THE MAIN ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE DIRECTED FARTHER NORTH
TOWARD THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO FORM BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DANGER IS FORECAST FOR THE GREAT BASIN UNDER GUSTY AND DRY
CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THE LARGE UPPER LOW DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VERY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS INTO THE WEST
COAST. IN FACT, RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE FOUND ACROSS
CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THE
ANOMALOUS COOL CONDITIONS WILL PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND DURING THE
WEEKEND, OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY MORNING.
IN CONTRAST, ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY UNDER THE WARM
UPPER HIGH WHERE 110S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO NEARBY OKLAHOMA. THIS HEATWAVE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RELENTING
BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE COOL AIR FROM THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO ERODE THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER, HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO THE MID 100S DURING THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE HEAT BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, VERY COOL AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR AUGUST WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. UNDER THE COOL UPPER
TROUGH TOGETHER WITH A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST.
KEBEDE/KONG
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