854
FXCA20 KWBC 231913
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 PM EDT FRI AUG 23 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 23 AUG 2024 AT 1915 UTC:
ON FRIDAY...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO. THE PERIPHERAL
REGION TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. WHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
WAVES AND EASTERLY WAVES IS PROPAGATING WEST OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO...BRINGING WITH THEM MOISTURE. OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM THE
BAHAMAS...TO CENTRAL CUBA...AND TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND HAS ITS BASE OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND INTO CUBA...AND EXTENDS INTO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHERE SOME PRECIPITATION COULD BE
EXPECTED. IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEBILITATE ON FRIDAY...BUT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE
PRESENT TO FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW IN COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND WESTERN
COLOMBIA.
BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES HAS EXTENDED INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS EASTERLY AND TROPICAL WAVES
ARE PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF MEXICO...MAKING IT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN
SINALOA TO WEST JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN GUERRERO TO WEST OAXACA. BY
SATURDAY...THE PROPAGATION OF THE PERTURBATIONS TO THE WEST WILL
FAVOR A DECREASE IN THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IN THAT DAY...AND
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MEANDER IN THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A CIRCULATION FROM SOUTHERN JALISCO TO NAYARIT...WILL
FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE
FOR THIS CIRCULATION COULD BE FOUND IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.ÂON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST DEEPENS
FURTHER AND EXTENDS TO THE EAST...OVER SONORA...JALISCO...AND
PORTIONS OF NAYARIT. THIS PROVIDESÂVENTILATION FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE DEEPER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA...WITH SOME EFFECTS EXPECTED IN WESTERN COLOMBIA.
ON FRIDAY...THE PANAMANIANÂTROUGH IS PRESENT IN CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF PANAMA...BUT FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DAY WITH THE MOST
DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION. EVEN SO...THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE COASTAL REGIONS FROM COSTA
RICA TO WEST COLOMBIA. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM COSTA RICA TO
WESTERN COLOMBIA. ON SATURDAY...THE PASSING OF A TROUGH FROM THE
EAST ENTERS THE REGION OF THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH...ENHANCING THE
CIRCULATION AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IN THE REGION. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM COSTA RICA TO
PANAMA...AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN WESTERN COLOMBIA WITH RISK MCS
FORMATION. ON SUNDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR AND THE
CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW IN THE REGION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
ROM COSTA RICA TO WESTERN COLOMBIA.
IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...AS
WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL CUBA...AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. OTHER REGIONS COULD ALSO SEE
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA...AS MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE MOISTURE IN THE TRADES FAVORS THE AMOUNTS. ON
SATURDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST INTO WEST
CUBA...AND ENTERING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND EXTENDING
INTO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE DECREASES AND
MAXIMA IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN BELOW 25MM. BY SUNDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE DRIER CONDITIONS...AND MAXIMA
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL
ASSIST WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. ON FRIDAY...TROUGHS
ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA...AND OVER VENEZUELA. THESE
FEATURES WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
IN EASTERN COLOMBIA. MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED FROM TRINIDAD
AND EASTERN VENEZUELA. ON SATURDAY...THESE TROUGHS PROPAGATE TO
THE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION. DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE CONVECTION
COULD FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA...AND
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION INTO
CENTRAL VENEZUELA. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN PART OF
VENEZUELA AND INTO TRINIDAD WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. BY
SUNDAY...THESE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF
NORTH SOUTH AMERICA AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN NORTH
COLOMBIA...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A SHEAR LINE FROM THE SOUTH...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...INTO NORTHERN PERU...AND WESTERN
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
ACOSTA...(WPC)
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