572
FXUS01 KWBC 240813
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2024
VALID 12Z SAT AUG 24 2024 - 12Z MON AUG 26 2024
...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND
WILL EDGE EAST TOWARD SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
PRODUCING LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
...RECORD HEAT RELENTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS RECORD COOL
TEMPERATURES ENVELOP CALIFORNIA TO THE GREAT BASIN...
...CRITICAL FIRE RISK AND RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT BASIN...
AN ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHARPLY CONTRASTING WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE U.S. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A WARM UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN TWO DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOWS/TROUGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
WEST AND EAST COASTS. AN UNSTABLE CHANNEL OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY, SHIFTING ONLY
SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY WHEN THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT DWINDLES FURTHER AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO GIVE
WAY TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, A COUPLE OF NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM ONE AFTER ANOTHER AND MOVE
TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS BUT ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER OF
MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS FORECAST FOR THE GREAT
BASIN UNDER BLUSTERY AND DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THE LARGE UPPER LOW DIPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VERY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS INTO THE WEST
COAST TODAY. IN FACT, RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE FOUND
ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
ANOMALOUS COOL CONDITIONS WILL PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND AND
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY. IN CONTRAST, THE
HEATWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF RELENTING
AS THE COOL AIR FROM THE WESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO ERODE THE UPPER
RIDGE. NEVERTHELESS, ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER A LARGE PORTIONS OF TEXAS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
RAIN. HOWEVER, SOME HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TO ASSOCIATE
WITH LOCALIZED CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, COOL MORNINGS, INCREASINGLY WARM AFTERNOONS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
UNDER A COOL UPPER TROUGH TOGETHER WITH A COOL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST
COAST. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO THE LOWER 90S
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME URBAN LOCATIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE COOL AIR OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
KONG
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