143
FXUS01 KWBC 242000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SAT AUG 24 2024
VALID 00Z SUN AUG 25 2024 - 00Z TUE AUG 27 2024
...RECORD HEAT RELENTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE HEAT SHIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST...
...SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY...
...DAILY MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
A RELENTLESS HEATWAVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
FINALLY START TO EASE A BIT SUNDAY FOLLOWING ANOTHER DAY OF
POSSIBLY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-100S
TODAY (SATURDAY). FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL STILL BE HOT BUT CLOSER TO AVERAGE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HOT WEATHER WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND BUILD NORTHWARD, BRINGING DANGEROUS HEAT INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS
WILL SOAR INTO THE MID- TO UPPER 90S, WITH SOME LOW 100S POSSIBLE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES, HEAT INDICES WILL REACH
INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE, WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT-RELATED
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT, PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE/UPPER MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. EXTRA
CAUTION SHOULD BE OBSERVED BY THOSE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE AIR
CONDITIONING AND ANYONE WHO MUST BE OUTDOORS SHOULD REMAIN
ADEQUATELY HYDRATED. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RELIEF TO PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY.
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BRING INCREASING STORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE, STRONG INSTABILITY, AND INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AS
A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE BROADER RIDGE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO THE
THREAT OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HIGHLIGHTING THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THEN, ON MONDAY,
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK IS IN EFFECT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND MISSOURI VALLEYS, WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED BUT POTENTIALLY LARGER HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING
WINDS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF SEPARATE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
TO THE SOUTHWEST, DAILY MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE, FOCUSING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS SUCH AS BURN
SCARS. BESIDES THE RAINFALL, THE BIG STORY ACROSS THE WEST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE COMMON TODAY AND
TOMORROW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT
BASIN, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, NEAR RECORD LOW MAXIMUM VALUES FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. MORNING LOWS SUNDAY WILL DIP INTO THE 40S AND EVEN
30S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN,
WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT IN NORTHERN NEVADA. THE FOCUS FOR
THESE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/EASTERN GREAT BASIN BY MONDAY WHILE CONDITIONS MODERATE TO
THE WEST, WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. SOME POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN THIS
EVENING, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ELSEWHERE, SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY OVER NEW ENGLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSES OVER THE
REGION. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR
FLORIDA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE REGION.
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