329
FXUS01 KWBC 250818
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2024
VALID 12Z SUN AUG 25 2024 - 12Z TUE AUG 27 2024
...RECORD HEAT RELENTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE HEAT SHIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST...
...SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY...
...DAILY MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
AS THE COOL UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S., THE HEATWAVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY RELENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE, DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIRECT THE HEAT
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY BEFORE
SPREADING INTO THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY, THEN REACHING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE AREA OF MAJOR HEATRISK TODAY WILL EXPAND
WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, EXTREME HEATRISK
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE MIDWEST AND TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN
WHERE MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S
TO THE MID-100S IN THE AFTERNOON, PROMPTING WIDESPREAD
HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE
OBSERVED BY THOSE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE AIR CONDITIONING AND ANYONE
WHO MUST BE OUTDOORS SHOULD REMAIN ADEQUATELY HYDRATED.
A COLD FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE DOME OF COOL AIR
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REACH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY, BRINGING RELIEF TO THE HEAT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTED AN AREA OF ENHANCED RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WHERE A CHANCE FOR
POTENTIALLY LARGER HAIL WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. BY EARLY TUESDAY, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
FARTHER NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, DAILY MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE, INITIALLY FOCUSING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO SOME MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR
TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS. BESIDES THE RAINFALL,
THE BIG STORY ACROSS THE WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE MUCH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN, AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH NEAR RECORD LOW MAXIMUM VALUES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. LOWS ARE DIPPING INTO THE 40S AND EVEN 30S THIS MORNING
FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN WHERE
FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT IN PORTIONS OF NEVADA. SOME
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATER ON MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE, SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OVER NEW ENGLAND WHEN A BACK-DOOR UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR FLORIDA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE REGION. OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE
PACIFIC ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
KONG/PUTNAM
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