102
FXUS01 KWBC 252001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2024
VALID 00Z MON AUG 26 2024 - 00Z WED AUG 28 2024
..DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDWEST
...SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY-MONDAY AND GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY...
...DAILY MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
U.S. WILL HELP TO EXPAND/INTENSIFY A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE OVER THE
MIDWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-90S TO
NEAR 100 COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL SEND HEAT INDICES INTO
THE 105-115 DEGREE RANGE, WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS IN PLACE. MORNING LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY WARM, IN
THE MID- TO UPPER 70S, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BOTH OVER THE MIDWEST AS WELL AS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY. THOSE WITHOUT EFFICIENT AIR-CONDITIONING OR WHO MUST
SPEND TIME OR EFFORT OUTDOORS WILL BE AT A HEIGHTENED RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. REMEMBER TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND SEEK
OUT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASED
STORM COVERAGE WILL HELP TO BRING RELIEF TO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE SOME RELIEF
FROM THE RECORD HEAT THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION, CONDITIONS WILL
STILL BE SUMMER-TIME HOT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-90S.
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST, A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE BUILDING HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (SUNDAY). THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA FOR THE THREAT OF SOME LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ON
MONDAY. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WITH A STRONGER WAVE WILL BRING
GREATER SHEAR, AND THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY
ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS HAS RESULTED IN AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA WEST THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY LARGE HAIL, WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS, AND
A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK COVERS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SOME
MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE UPPER-HIGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES AND A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER, WITH MORE INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, THE
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THE CHANCE OF
SOME MORE INTENSE DOWNPOURS, AND THESE HIGHER RAIN RATES ALONG
WITH ANY ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE WILL ALSO BRING THE
RISK OF SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY.
DAILY MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TODAY, SHIFTING A BIT EASTWARD FURTHER INTO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE, WITH THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS
ALONG STEEPER HILLS/MOUNTAIN RANGES AND OVER BURN SCARS. SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OVER EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO FOR THE THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS WELL. TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-TROUGH. FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN. MORE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER, A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP HIGHS INTO THE
60S AND 70S.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING SOME
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH SOME MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE PASSING WAVE
WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN HERE COMPARED TO
ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN U.S., WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER FLORIDA AND ALONG
THE GULF COAST INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE REGION AND A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-HIGH PASSING OVERHEAD.
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